Economic Consumer Cost and Pollution Impacts of Federal Energy Policy Changes

The report models the effects of several federal policy reversals—including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the repeal of EPA greenhouse gas and tailpipe emissions standards, and the cancellation of the Solar for All grant program—predicting significant economic losses and increased consumer costs. Key findings include a projected $650 billion increase in household energy payments, a cumulative GDP loss of $2.3 trillion, and the loss of 820,000 jobs per year on average over the next decade. The analysis also forecasts a 26 percent increase in gasoline prices by 2040 and $43 billion in additional healthcare costs due to worsening air pollution. To mitigate these impacts, the report suggests state-level actions such as accelerating wind and solar procurement, removing permitting barriers, and supporting electric transportation and building efficiency.

• Federal policy changes are projected to increase household energy expenditures by $650 billion, with average annual costs per household reaching $460 in 2035 and $490 in 2040.
• The U.S. economy is expected to suffer a cumulative GDP loss of $2.3 trillion, with annual losses of $150 billion in 2030, peaking at $250 billion in 2032, and falling to $120 billion by 2040.
• The combination of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and reduced federal support for innovation is projected to result in an average annual loss of 820,000 jobs over the next decade, following an initial loss of 144,000 clean energy jobs over 18 months.
• Gasoline prices are forecasted to rise by 14 percent in 2035 and 26 percent in 2040 due to the removal of policies driving transportation innovation and efficiency.
• Worsening local air pollution is expected to increase healthcare costs by $43 billion, with annual increases of $4 billion in 2035 and $4.5 billion in 2040.

APA

Marcacci, S. (2026). Economic Consumer Cost and Pollution Impacts of Federal Energy Policy Changes. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/report/economic-consumer-cost-and-pollution-impacts-of-federal-energy-policy-changes/

Chicago

Marcacci, Silvio. Economic Consumer Cost and Pollution Impacts of Federal Energy Policy Changes. Energy Innovation, 2026. https://energyinnovation.org/report/economic-consumer-cost-and-pollution-impacts-of-federal-energy-policy-changes/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Marcacci |first1=Silvio |title=Economic Consumer Cost and Pollution Impacts of Federal Energy Policy Changes |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=7 July 2026 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/report/economic-consumer-cost-and-pollution-impacts-of-federal-energy-policy-changes/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{marcacci2026economic, author = {Marcacci, Silvio}, title = {{Economic Consumer Cost and Pollution Impacts of Federal Energy Policy Changes}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2026}, month = jul, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/report/economic-consumer-cost-and-pollution-impacts-of-federal-energy-policy-changes/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }