ISS African Futures

This report provides a development forecast for São Tomé and Príncipe up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' trajectory with various sectoral improvement scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. It analyzes demographics, economic growth, poverty levels, and energy transitions for the island nation.

• Under the Current Path forecast, São Tomé and Príncipe's population is expected to grow from 218,000 in 2019 to 351,000 by 2043, though the growth rate is projected to be slower than in previous decades due to declining fertility rates.
• The economy is projected to shift away from the primary sector; while the service sector (dominated by tourism) will remain the largest contributor to GDP, the manufacturing sector is expected to overtake agriculture as the second largest contributor by 2043.
• Extreme poverty remains a significant challenge; on the Current Path, 62% of the population is projected to live below the US$3.20 poverty line by 2043, with the absolute number of poor people increasing to 218,000.
• Agricultural demand is expected to consistently exceed domestic production, with the shortfall projected to reach approximately 190,000 metric tons by 2043 on the Current Path, raising food security concerns.
• The country is a low carbon emitter, with emissions projected to rise from 30,000 tons in 2019 to 100,000 tons by 2043 on the Current Path, primarily driven by the power (62%) and transport (29.3%) industries.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements, projects a significant economic boost with GDP reaching US$1.5 billion and GDP per capita increasing to US$7,082 by 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would substantially reduce poverty, lowering the proportion of people living below the US$3.20 line to 39.8% (130,000 people) by 2043.
• Among individual sectoral scenarios, Free Trade is projected to have the highest positive impact on GDP per capita, adding US$701 above the Current Path by 2043.
• The Leapfrogging scenario projects significant improvements in infrastructure, including increasing electricity access to 91.5% of the population and mobile broadband subscriptions to 152.3 per 100 people by 2043.
• The Demographic scenario suggests the country could achieve its demographic dividend by 2039, with the ratio of working-age persons to dependants reaching 1.9 by 2043.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=current-path

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }