São Tomé and Príncipe Development Futures

The report projects that São Tomé and Príncipe will see population growth to 351,000 and a GDP per capita increase to US$4,910 by 2043 under its Current Path. While the nation remains a low carbon emitter, it faces systemic poverty and food insecurity. The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, integrating improvements in trade, manufacturing, and infrastructure, could significantly boost GDP per capita to US$7,082 and reduce the poverty rate to 39.8%, though this growth would increase carbon emissions to 130,000 tons.

• Under the Current Path forecast, São Tomé and Príncipe's population is expected to grow from 218,000 in 2019 to 351,000 by 2043, with urbanisation increasing from 72.7% to 79.4%.
• The Current Path forecast predicts GDP per capita will rise to US$4,910 by 2043, but the country will continue to struggle with high poverty, with 62% of the population living below the US$3.20 poverty line.
• São Tomé and Príncipe is projected to remain a low carbon emitter, with emissions increasing from 30,000 tons in 2019 to approximately 100,000 tons by 2043 on the Current Path, primarily driven by the power (62%) and transport (29.3%) industries.
• The agriculture sector faces significant challenges, including low productivity and a growing gap between demand and domestic production; by 2043, the shortfall is expected to reach 190,000 metric tons.
• The Leapfrogging scenario would significantly improve energy and digital access, increasing electricity access to 91.5% of the population and mobile broadband subscriptions to 152.3 per 100 people by 2043.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the implementation of the AfCFTA, is identified as the single most impactful sectoral scenario for increasing GDP per capita, adding US$701 over the Current Path by 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario projects aggressive economic growth, with GDP reaching US$1.5 billion and GDP per capita rising to US$7,082 by 2043, while reducing the number of people in extreme poverty to 130,000 (39.8% of the population).
• While the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario maximizes economic gains, it also results in the highest environmental cost, with carbon emissions projected to reach 130,000 tons by 2043.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). São Tomé and Príncipe Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=current-path

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. São Tomé and Príncipe Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=São Tomé and Príncipe Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026tom, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{São Tomé and Príncipe Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }