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The Global Resilience Partnership (GRP), in collaboration with the UNDP and GEF, is seeking Expressions of Interest from organizations managing innovative finance mechanisms in fragile and conflict-prone regions. The initiative aims to support private sector solutions that address the 'triple threat' of COVID-19, climate change-induced extreme weather, and geopolitical instability. Selected organizations will receive grants, technical assistance from a multidisciplinary mentoring facility, and networking opportunities to improve the scale and effectiveness of their funds. Eligible mechanisms must be based in specific Least Developed Countries (LDCs), demonstrate a sustainable revenue model, and focus on the intersection of climate adaptation, food and water security, and disaster risk reduction.

The document argues that while a 'grand theory' of migration does not exist, researchers can use 'theoretical triangulation' to formulate testable propositions. It presents ten such propositions covering the roles of pre-existing connections, social networks, involuntary immobility, resource constraints, environmental stress, violent conflict, economic development, development aid, and the effectiveness and unintended consequences of migration policies.

Phaesun GmbH installed a 14.4 kWp solar PV system with battery storage at Orotta Hospital in Eritrea, funded by the NGO Archemed for EUR 75,000. The system provides a reliable power supply for pediatric cardiac surgery and neonatology wards, mitigating frequent grid blackouts and unreliable diesel generators. Since December 2014, the system has enabled round-the-clock operations for critical loads, managed and maintained by the Eritrean Ministry of Health.

The report details how COVID-19 caused operational disruptions, reduced premium income, and accelerated digitalization within the insurance sector in Eastern and Southern Africa. While life and health products provided some coverage, business interruption insurance largely failed to support business resilience. Insurers face prudential stability concerns and liquidity challenges, though 50% expect premium income to recover within a year.

The report finds that achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) targets by 2030 requires an additional 33 billion USD per year in public spending. This total is split between an additional 14 billion USD from international donors and 19 billion USD from low- and middle-income countries through increased taxation. These investments, focused heavily on Africa, would prevent 490 million people from suffering from hunger and double the incomes of 545 million small-scale producers while adhering to Paris Agreement climate commitments. The proposed funding is distributed across three intervention categories: empowering the excluded, on-farm productivity, and food movement.

The report analyzes the drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia, focusing on the cyclical relationship between political institutions and nationalist mobilizations. It argues that the 'centralised ethno federation' established by the EPRDF created fault lines that, when combined with recent political liberalization and institutional fragility, led to widespread violence. The author examines specific conflicts in the north, west, and south, applying the concepts of the 'security dilemma' and 'invidious comparison' to explain micro-level violence. The document concludes that sustainable stability requires transforming the ruling party, conducting inclusive national dialogue, and reclaiming state autonomy from mob influence.

The report assesses Ethiopia's development path to 2040, highlighting a tension between rapid GDP growth and lagging human development indicators. While the country has seen significant improvements in health and agricultural yields, it faces critical bottlenecks in primary education completion, basic infrastructure (WASH), and gender equality. The analysis warns that political liberalisation may create short-term instability due to ethnic factionalism and an 'anocratic' regime type. The report contrasts a positive 'Abiynomics' scenario, driven by targeted investments in human capital and governance, with a 'Dark Days' scenario characterized by political regression and economic decline.

The Red Sea is a complex geopolitical environment characterized by state-to-state rivalries, external military presence, and a perceived gap in maritime management. While shipping has remained largely undisrupted, threats persist from the war in Yemen, piracy, and violent extremist organizations. The report argues that existing regional organizations like IGAD and the AU have limited mandates or internal challenges, suggesting that new cooperative mechanisms should start with narrow mandates, prioritize information sharing, and include all relevant littoral and non-littoral stakeholders to avoid duplication and respect national sovereignty.

The August 2019 Peace & Security Council Report examines the African Union's (AU) struggle to define 'unconstitutional changes of government' in the context of popular uprisings in Algeria and Sudan. It highlights the risks of increasing foreign military presence, particularly in the Horn of Africa, and the resulting rivalry between global powers like the US and China. The report also advocates for the inclusion of women in Sudan's peace process and warns of potential political instability in Côte d’Ivoire ahead of the 2020 elections. Finally, it discusses the limited access civil society organizations have to AU and regional economic community structures.

The document analyzes the similarities and differences between China's engagement with Africa via the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and with Arab states via the China–Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF). It finds that while China–Arab relations are characterized by deeper economic and energy ties, China–Africa relations are more robust in terms of cultural diplomacy, people-to-people exchanges, and military engagement. The author highlights how China uses Africa as a testing ground for foreign policy initiatives and notes potential frictions in the Horn of Africa where Chinese and Gulf state interests overlap.

The document examines the increase in sovereign debt across Africa, specifically focusing on the role of Chinese financing and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It challenges the notion that China is 'trapping' African nations, noting that African governments actively seek these loans to address an annual infrastructure financing deficit of approximately $93 billion and to compensate for declining commodity prices. However, it highlights significant risks, including the opacity of loan terms, the potential for corruption, and the impact of debt servicing on public spending. The author recommends greater transparency from both China and African governments, and a stronger link between debt-funded projects and concrete local benefits.

The authors created the CACAO database, which uses a 110x110 km grid to map conflicts, climate data, and socio-economic variables across Africa. Initial descriptive analysis shows that conflicts often overlap with areas rich in natural resources and populated regions, while the relationship with temperature and precipitation changes is more complex and requires further spatial and temporal analysis.

Since 2016, Israel has pursued a vigorous African engagement strategy to secure diplomatic support in international forums and expand markets for its technology and security expertise. While relations are deepening with East African nations like Ethiopia and Kenya due to shared security concerns and commercial opportunities, ties with regional powerhouses Nigeria and South Africa remain complex and often strained by solidarity with the Palestinian cause. Despite high-level diplomatic efforts, including Prime Minister Netanyahu's visits and the proposed Africa-Israel Summit, the document finds that trade between Israel and Africa remains minimal and that winning consistent loyalty in the UN General Assembly remains elusive.

The paper examines the decline of internet freedoms in Africa, noting that at least 10 states shut down internet access or social media in 2016 to curtail political mobilisation. While technology can improve government transparency and service delivery—as seen in Kenya's e-government initiatives—it is also used for surveillance and censorship. The author argues for a balanced regulatory approach that addresses cybercrime, which is growing rapidly in Africa, without infringing on civil liberties. The document highlights a lack of binding continental or regional frameworks, noting that most existing instruments are non-binding templates.

Ethiopia is piloting the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) to move away from a camp-based refugee model toward socio-economic integration. While the reform promises expanded access to work permits, education, and civil documentation, it faces significant hurdles including low industrial wages, coordination gaps between government agencies, and ethnic tensions in regions like Gambella. The document recommends a conflict-sensitive approach, a national minimum wage, and increased start-up capital for refugee entrepreneurs to ensure sustainable self-reliance.

The document analyzes the divergent priorities between the EU, which focuses on stemming irregular migration and border control, and African nations, which prioritize development, employment, and legal mobility. It critiques the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF) for using aid conditionality to secure readmission agreements and argues that a lack of AU consensus, combined with restrictive bilateral agreements, hinders a coherent continental approach to migration.

The paper analyzes the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS) of Ethiopia, which prioritizes domestic security and development over external concerns. While this approach has supported economic growth and regional mediation roles, the author argues it has led to strategic vulnerabilities, including a failure to secure sea access and an underestimation of threats from Eritrea and Egypt. The document recommends a more proactive, opportunity-based diplomatic approach to enhance regional trade and security.

The report analyzes Ethiopia's trajectory toward lower-middle-income status, highlighting significant progress in GDP growth and health indicators alongside persistent challenges in food security, education quality, and political inclusion. It uses scenario modeling to demonstrate that integrated investments in agriculture, human capital, and governance are essential to harness a looming demographic dividend and avoid instability driven by a large youth bulge.

The document discusses the transition of the African Union Commission (AUC) leadership to Moussa Faki Mahamat. It emphasizes that the AU cannot return to 'business as usual' due to a volatile global political landscape and the urgent need for financial autonomy. A key focus is the implementation of a 0.2% levy on African imports to reduce reliance on international donors, aiming to provide $1.2 billion in overall revenue in 2017 and ensure peace operations are 25% self-funded. The text also highlights the necessity of institutional reforms proposed by President Paul Kagame and the need for the AU to address root causes of conflict and migration in countries such as Libya, Somalia, and Sudan.

The paper analyzes the relationship between China and Ethiopia, highlighting how Ethiopia's 'developmental state' model and strategic location in the Horn of Africa make it a key partner for China. It details Chinese investments in infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications, while noting that China's political influence is constrained by Ethiopia's strong national pride and centralized power structures. The document also explores China's increasing role in regional stability through the African Union and IGAD.