A REGIONAL POWER IN THE MAKING: ETHIOPIAN DIPLOMACY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

The paper analyzes the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS) of Ethiopia, which prioritizes domestic security and development over external concerns. While this approach has supported economic growth and regional mediation roles, the author argues it has led to strategic vulnerabilities, including a failure to secure sea access and an underestimation of threats from Eritrea and Egypt. The document recommends a more proactive, opportunity-based diplomatic approach to enhance regional trade and security.

• Ethiopia's foreign policy is governed by the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS) launched in 2002, which explicitly prioritizes domestic security and development over external threats.
• The 'inward-looking' nature of Ethiopia's diplomacy has resulted in missed economic opportunities, particularly in South Sudan, where Ethiopian businesses have been outperformed by competitors from Kenya, Uganda, and Eritrea.
• Ethiopia's focus on internal threats led to a lack of military readiness that contributed to the 1998 border war with Eritrea, as the country had no army brigade positioned along the 912km frontier prior to the invasion.
• Ethiopia maintains a significant military presence in regional peace operations, ranking first in sub-Saharan Africa for troop strength and equipment, and providing the entirety of the 4,250 troops for UNISFA.
• The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a $5 billion project, represents a shift in Nile River hydro-politics, challenging Egypt's historical claims to 55.5 billion m3 of annual water quota.
• Ethiopia's diplomatic resource allocation is inconsistent with its stated priorities; it deploys fewer diplomats per mission in the IGAD region than its global average, despite the region's strategic importance.
• Internal political instability, specifically protests in the Amhara and Oromia regions in 2015/2016, threatens Ethiopia's diplomatic standing and the sustainability of its developmental state model.
• Recent geopolitical shifts, including the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen and EU migration deals, have eroded Ethiopia's previous success in diplomatically isolating Eritrea.

APA

MARU, M. T. (2017). A REGIONAL POWER IN THE MAKING: ETHIOPIAN DIPLOMACY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Occasional-Paper-261.pdf

Chicago

MARU, MEHARI TADDELE. A REGIONAL POWER IN THE MAKING: ETHIOPIAN DIPLOMACY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2017. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Occasional-Paper-261.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=MARU |first1=MEHARI TADDELE |title=A REGIONAL POWER IN THE MAKING: ETHIOPIAN DIPLOMACY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=June 2017 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Occasional-Paper-261.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{maru2017regional, author = {MARU, MEHARI TADDELE}, title = {{A REGIONAL POWER IN THE MAKING: ETHIOPIAN DIPLOMACY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2017}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Occasional-Paper-261.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }