Climate Change and Armed Conflicts African Observatory (CACAO): a georeferenced map of Africa

The authors created the CACAO database, which uses a 110x110 km grid to map conflicts, climate data, and socio-economic variables across Africa. Initial descriptive analysis shows that conflicts often overlap with areas rich in natural resources and populated regions, while the relationship with temperature and precipitation changes is more complex and requires further spatial and temporal analysis.

• The CACAO database provides a granular, georeferenced panel for the African continent from 1990 to 2016, dividing the region into grid cells of approximately 110x110 km.
• Between 1990 and 2016, approximately 6.3% of the observations in the dataset were characterized by the presence of a conflict.
• The highest number of conflicts during the study period occurred in Algeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DCR), Nigeria, Somalia, and Sudan, while the highest number of deaths were recorded in Rwanda, Sudan, Eritrea, DCR, and Ethiopia.
• Mapping reveals a notable overlap between conflict zones and concentrations of energy and mineral resources, though the overlap with water resources is less clear.
• While most of Africa saw a sharp increase in temperature, the areas with the greatest temperature increases (North West and South West) did not align closely with conflict zones, suggesting a weak direct link.
• Conflicts have risen in the central belt, where precipitation has notably increased, and in the south east, where precipitation has notably decreased.
• The analysis suggests that conflicts primarily erupt in populated areas that are also rich in natural resources.

APA

Cappelli, F., Conigliani, C., Costantini, V., Lelo, K., Markandya, A., Paglialunga, E., & Sforna, G. (2018). Climate Change and Armed Conflicts African Observatory (CACAO): a georeferenced map of Africa. Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20180903101314132739497.pdf

Chicago

Cappelli, Federica, Caterina Conigliani, Valeria Costantini, Keti Lelo, Anil Markandya, Elena Paglialunga, and Giorgia Sforna. Climate Change and Armed Conflicts African Observatory (CACAO): a georeferenced map of Africa. Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2018. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20180903101314132739497.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cappelli |first1=Federica |last2=Conigliani |first2=Caterina |last3=Costantini |first3=Valeria |last4=Lelo |first4=Keti |last5=Markandya |first5=Anil |last6=Paglialunga |first6=Elena |last7=Sforna |first7=Giorgia |title=Climate Change and Armed Conflicts African Observatory (CACAO): a georeferenced map of Africa |publisher=Basque Centre for Climate Change |date=July 2018 |url=https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20180903101314132739497.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cappelli2018climate, author = {Cappelli, Federica and Conigliani, Caterina and Costantini, Valeria and Lelo, Keti and Markandya, Anil and Paglialunga, Elena and Sforna, Giorgia}, title = {{Climate Change and Armed Conflicts African Observatory (CACAO): a georeferenced map of Africa}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2018}, month = jul, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20180903101314132739497.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }