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Climate change is intensifying risks of violent conflict across Africa by aggravating food and water insecurity, driving human displacement, and increasing competition over natural resources. The document highlights specific crises, such as the shrinking of Lake Chad and farmer-herder conflicts in the Sahel and Horn of Africa, to illustrate how environmental stressors exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. It calls for the integration of climate-sensitive planning into peacekeeping, reconstruction, and development efforts, emphasizing nature-based solutions and climate-resilient agriculture as key to strengthening resilience and security.

The authors contend that climate change acts as a 'destabilizing force' and 'threat multiplier' that fundamentally shapes geopolitical risks, affecting U.S. interests regarding China, Russia, and other global threats. They highlight how environmental degradation drives military activity in the Arctic and allows China to gain influence in the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, the text notes that climate-related disasters and heat extremes directly undermine U.S. military readiness by damaging installations and limiting training. The authors suggest that while the U.S. must remain vigilant against adversaries, climate and biodiversity cooperation could serve as a pillar for diplomatic engagement.

The study finds that human-induced climate change did not significantly increase the occurrence of the poor rains observed in southern Madagascar between July 2019 and June 2021, as trends remain overwhelmed by natural variability. While the region experienced a 1-in-135 year dry event with only 60% of normal rainfall, the resulting severe food insecurity was driven primarily by high pre-existing vulnerability, poverty, COVID-19 restrictions, and pest infestations rather than climate change.

The report analyzes the security landscape of West Africa, identifying a complex interplay of weak governance, economic inequality, and emerging threats like violent extremism and transnational crime. It highlights how these factors undermine regional stability and development, particularly in the Sahel. While Ghana is relatively stable, it faces risks from porous borders and internal community tensions. The document recommends pursuing economic integration via the AfCFTA, addressing youth unemployment, and strengthening regional security alliances to combat terrorism and trafficking.

The Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), launched by the Ethiopian government in 2005, provides cash or food transfers to over 8 million households to address chronic food insecurity and climate shocks. Integrated into the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy, the program's fifth phase (Phase V), initiated in November 2020 via the Strengthen Ethiopia’s Adaptive Safety Net Project (SEASN), is supported by a diverse funding pool including the World Bank, USAID, UK FCDO, and the Government of Ethiopia. The program utilizes public works, such as building terraced hill slopes, to enhance water retention and climate adaptation.

The report assesses the development prospects of the Horn of Africa, highlighting how governance failure, insecurity, and climate-driven food instability hinder progress. It uses the International Futures platform to project that without intervention, no country in the region will eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The analysis identifies a critical 'youth bulge' and severe infrastructure deficits in energy, transport, and water. To counter these trends, the authors propose an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario combining improved governance, agricultural modernisation, and investments in human capital and basic infrastructure to boost regional GDP and reduce poverty by 2040.

The report argues that South Africa's municipal service delivery model has failed, transforming basic services from tools for socioeconomic development into instruments of impoverishment. It finds a massive gap between the number of households funded for free basic services and those actually receiving them, while tariffs for low-income households have risen far above inflation. The author contends that the 'win-win' assumption—that tariffs can be simultaneously affordable for the poor and sufficient for municipal financial viability—is a fallacy. This failure exacerbates food insecurity, as poor households sacrifice nutrition to pay municipal bills, and undermines other national poverty-reduction efforts. The report advocates for a 'Food First' approach to affordability and a fundamental rethink of the local government fiscal framework.

The report warns that South Africa is on a 'worst-case' climate trajectory (RCP 8.5), which will lead to extreme heat, water scarcity, and food insecurity, disproportionately harming youth. It details regional collapses in agriculture and tourism, the expansion of informal settlements due to climate-induced migration, and the severe mental health trauma facing children. The author argues that without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, large parts of the country may become uninhabitable, leading to systemic social conflict and economic collapse.

The conflict in Cabo Delgado is driven by a combination of political marginalisation, economic inequality, and climatic shocks. While the discovery of offshore natural gas promised development, it instead led to forced relocations, inadequate compensation, and unmet employment expectations, which Islamist militants have exploited for recruitment. These grievances are compounded by extreme weather events, including Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, which destroyed infrastructure and increased food insecurity. The document argues that military responses alone are insufficient and calls for inclusive natural resource governance and climate resilience strategies to address the root causes of the insurgency.

The report assesses the intersection of climate change and national security in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). It projects that by 2030 and 2050, intensified extreme rainfall, sea level rise, and crop yield failures will stress the regime's ability to provide public goods, potentially leading to domestic upheaval or regional conflict. Specific risks are identified for the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, the capital city of Pyongyang, and key coastal military and commercial hubs. The authors argue that these climate stressors could lead to miscalculations in military posture, increased migration, and strained bilateral relations with China and South Korea, while suggesting that climate cooperation could offer a new avenue for diplomatic engagement.

The report 'Driven to Waste' estimates that 1.2 billion tonnes of food, or 15.3% of global production, is lost on farms. When combined with retail and consumer waste, total global food loss and waste is estimated at over 2.5 billion tonnes (approximately 40% of all food produced), contributing 10% of total global greenhouse gas emissions. The document highlights a geographic disparity: high- and middle-income countries in Europe, North America, and Industrialised Asia contribute 58% of global harvest loss, while low-income countries account for 54% of post-harvest farm-stage loss. It argues that farm-stage loss is driven by downstream market decisions and asymmetric power balances, and calls for national governments to include food loss and waste in Paris Agreement national carbon plans.

The project aims to support 70,500 direct beneficiaries in rural Eswatini, particularly in the Lubombo and Shiselweni regions, to adapt to increasing droughts and floods. It proposes a three-component approach: scaling up climate-resilient land use (such as conservation agriculture and rainwater harvesting), strengthening agricultural value chains to attract private investment, and improving the enabling environment through better land access and early warning systems. The initiative seeks USD 30 million from the Green Climate Fund, with USD 25 million in co-financing from the Eswatini Ministry of Agriculture.

The research argues that while food insecurity provides the motivation for urban unrest, the actual occurrence of collective action is contingent on the presence of organizational networks and the level of state repression. Using a combination of cross-national data from urban Africa (1990–2014) and individual-level survey data from Johannesburg, the author finds that food insecurity increases the likelihood of unrest, particularly demonstrations and strikes. However, the study challenges the notion that food is a uniquely potent driver of unrest compared to other living expenses and finds no evidence that food insecurity leads specifically to more violent behavior.

The report details how COVID-19 disrupted artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) through health risks, supply chain breaks, and reduced market access. While many governments maintained basic support, the pandemic exacerbated vulnerabilities for women and increased the risk of illicit mining due to weakened government monitoring.

The report details how COVID-19 negatively impacted artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) through health crises, economic contraction, and disrupted supply chains. While many governments maintained basic support, the pandemic exacerbated existing vulnerabilities, increased illicit mining activities, and disproportionately affected women's livelihoods. The document argues that formalization of the sector is essential to reduce future vulnerability.

The research paper examines the relationship between climate change and global instability, asserting that while climate change may not cause conflict in isolation, it intensifies problems like food and water insecurity, economic loss, and ethnic tensions. It highlights that the risk of conflict is heavily dependent on regional sociopolitical contexts, such as government corruption and historical grievances. The document also notes a correlation in the U.S. between residents of disaster-prone areas and higher levels of concern regarding climate change, suggesting that these insights should inform government policies on mitigation and conflict prevention.

The Budget Justice Coalition (BJC) attributes the July 2020 unrest in South Africa to a combination of food and economic insecurity, state capture, and the government's adherence to austerity budgets. The BJC highlights that the termination of the R350 COVID-19 Social Relief of Distress grant and the caregiver allowance in October 2020 increased hunger for millions. The coalition criticizes the 2021 budget for implementing R265 billion in cuts to public services, including R50.3 billion from health care, R9 billion from public schools, and R39 billion from the police budget. To address the root causes of violence, the BJC demands the implementation of a Universal Basic Income Grant, the reinstatement of COVID-related grants at a rate of R585 per month, and the reversal of austerity measures in health, education, and social welfare.

The report analyzes the 2020 Burundian elections, highlighting a transition from President Pierre Nkurunziza to Evariste Ndayishimiye within the CNDD-FDD. It describes a political environment marked by an "autocratic drift," systemic repression of opposition parties like the CNL, and a fragile economy where 65% of the population lives below the poverty line. The author argues that the new president faces a "double guardianship" from Nkurunziza and a circle of powerful generals, which may hinder necessary democratic and socio-economic reforms.

A coalition of experts and civil society leaders has submitted a request to the South African government to revise its COVID-19 social relief package. They argue that the current allocation of the child support grant (CSG) increase—applied to the caregiver rather than per child—will leave an estimated 2 million more people below the food poverty line. The coalition demands that the CSG increase be attached to each grant and that unemployed caregivers be eligible for the R350 Covid-19 grant, particularly as 10 million children lost daily meals due to school closures.

The document argues that standard lockdown measures are often impractical and potentially more damaging than COVID-19 in Africa due to high poverty levels, weak democratic institutions, and a large informal economy. It highlights risks such as the erosion of democratic processes, food insecurity, and a disproportionate burden on women. The author advocates for localized, flexible responses and calls for wealthier Northern states to provide debt cancellations and aid to prevent regional instability.