Transition and continuity in Burundi

The report analyzes the 2020 Burundian elections, highlighting a transition from President Pierre Nkurunziza to Evariste Ndayishimiye within the CNDD-FDD. It describes a political environment marked by an "autocratic drift," systemic repression of opposition parties like the CNL, and a fragile economy where 65% of the population lives below the poverty line. The author argues that the new president faces a "double guardianship" from Nkurunziza and a circle of powerful generals, which may hinder necessary democratic and socio-economic reforms.

• The CNDD-FDD party has shifted toward autocracy over the last five years, resulting in a decline in freedom and democracy and widespread human rights violations.
• President Pierre Nkurunziza's decision not to seek a fourth term was influenced by pressure from high-level generals, regional pressures, and potentially a nuanced result of the 2018 constitutional referendum that contradicted official landslide claims.
• The 2020 electoral process is characterized by a restrictive legal framework, including high deposits for presidential candidates and a partisan Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI).
• The CNL, led by Agathon Rwasa, is the only opposition party capable of competing with the CNDD-FDD, but it has faced brutal repression, including the assassination of local officials.
• Burundi faces severe socio-economic distress, with 65% of the population living below the poverty line and youth unemployment reaching 65%.
• The country's economy is hampered by a lack of infrastructure, specifically one of the lowest rates of electricity access globally, and high dependence on tea and coffee exports.
• Environmental and climatic disruptions have caused deadly landslides and infrastructure destruction in Bujumbura, while Lake Tanganyika has lost biodiversity due to pollution and climate change.
• The likely new president, Evariste Ndayishimiye, is constrained by a "double guardianship" consisting of the influence of Pierre Nkurunziza and a circle of powerful generals.
• International actors, including the African Union (AU), East African Community (EAC), and UN, have struggled to manage the Burundi crisis due to the government's insistence on sovereignty and internal divisions within these organizations.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (2020). Transition and continuity in Burundi. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car-16-eng.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. Transition and continuity in Burundi. 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car-16-eng.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=Transition and continuity in Burundi |date=May 2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car-16-eng.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudies2020transition, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{Transition and continuity in Burundi}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = may, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car-16-eng.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }