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The study finds that human-induced climate change did not significantly increase the occurrence of the poor rains observed in southern Madagascar between July 2019 and June 2021, as trends remain overwhelmed by natural variability. While the region experienced a 1-in-135 year dry event with only 60% of normal rainfall, the resulting severe food insecurity was driven primarily by high pre-existing vulnerability, poverty, COVID-19 restrictions, and pest infestations rather than climate change.

The study investigates a severe drought in southern Madagascar (the Grand Sud region) between July 2019 and June 2021, which contributed to a major food security crisis. Analysis of observational data and climate models indicates that the event was a 1-in-135 year dry event, but its likelihood was not significantly increased by anthropogenic climate change. The findings suggest that natural variability remains the dominant driver of such droughts in this region, aligning with IPCC projections that perceptible changes in drought may only emerge if global mean temperatures exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The report also highlights that the humanitarian impact was severely compounded by extreme poverty, poor infrastructure, and the COVID-19 pandemic.