Factors other than climate change are the main drivers of recent food insecurity in southern Madagascar

The study finds that human-induced climate change did not significantly increase the occurrence of the poor rains observed in southern Madagascar between July 2019 and June 2021, as trends remain overwhelmed by natural variability. While the region experienced a 1-in-135 year dry event with only 60% of normal rainfall, the resulting severe food insecurity was driven primarily by high pre-existing vulnerability, poverty, COVID-19 restrictions, and pest infestations rather than climate change.

• Human-caused climate change did not significantly increase the likelihood of the poor rains observed in Southern Madagascar from July 2019 to June 2021, as natural variability continues to overwhelm small shifts toward more droughts.
• The rainfall deficit in the Grand Sud region from July 2019 to June 2021 was an exceptional 1-in-135 year dry event, with rainy seasons in 2019/20 and 2020/21 receiving only 60% of normal rainfall.
• The severe food security crisis in Southern Madagascar was exacerbated by the drought but primarily driven by pre-existing vulnerability, including high poverty levels, rain-fed subsistence agriculture and pastoralism, COVID-19 restrictions, and pest infestations.
• Large scale teleconnections, such as El Niño and La Niña, did not significantly alter the likelihood of these rainfall deficits; for instance, the 2020/21 rainy season was exceptionally dry despite a moderate La Niña event.
• The findings align with the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, which suggests that perceptible changes in drought in this region would only appear if global mean temperatures rise more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

APA

van Oldenborgh, G. J. (2021). Factors other than climate change are the main drivers of recent food insecurity in southern Madagascar. World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/factors-other-than-climate-change-are-the-main-drivers-of-recent-food-insecurity-in-southern-madagascar/

Chicago

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan. Factors other than climate change are the main drivers of recent food insecurity in southern Madagascar. World Weather Attribution, 2021. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/factors-other-than-climate-change-are-the-main-drivers-of-recent-food-insecurity-in-southern-madagascar/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van Oldenborgh |first1=Geert Jan |title=Factors other than climate change are the main drivers of recent food insecurity in southern Madagascar |publisher=World Weather Attribution |date=1 December 2021 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/factors-other-than-climate-change-are-the-main-drivers-of-recent-food-insecurity-in-southern-madagascar/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vanoldenborgh2021factors, author = {van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan}, title = {{Factors other than climate change are the main drivers of recent food insecurity in southern Madagascar}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2021}, month = dec, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/factors-other-than-climate-change-are-the-main-drivers-of-recent-food-insecurity-in-southern-madagascar/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }