Does climate change increase risk of conflict?

The research paper examines the relationship between climate change and global instability, asserting that while climate change may not cause conflict in isolation, it intensifies problems like food and water insecurity, economic loss, and ethnic tensions. It highlights that the risk of conflict is heavily dependent on regional sociopolitical contexts, such as government corruption and historical grievances. The document also notes a correlation in the U.S. between residents of disaster-prone areas and higher levels of concern regarding climate change, suggesting that these insights should inform government policies on mitigation and conflict prevention.

• Climate change functions as a "threat multiplier" that does not necessarily cause conflict on its own but increases risk by intensifying existing societal problems, such as food and water insecurity, which can lead to income loss and motivate people to riot or rebel.
• The likelihood of climate-induced conflict is contingent upon regional sociopolitical and economic factors, including the presence of corrupt or weak governments, histories of past conflict, and pre-existing ethnic discrimination or colonialist histories.
• Climate change can create a feedback loop where environmental changes make societies more vulnerable to structural violence, and that violence in turn reduces a society's capacity to cope with extreme weather and resource scarcity.
• Climate-driven instability can spill over into other regions through the disruption of nearby economies, the inflow of arms and mercenaries, and distress migration that exacerbates resource scarcity or identity conflicts in host regions.
• Data from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication indicates that people living in U.S. counties more affected by natural disasters, specifically in coastal Florida (around Miami), Texas, and North Carolina, express higher levels of worry about climate change.

APA

Fernandez, L. (2020). Does climate change increase risk of conflict? Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/news-events/does-climate-change-increase-risk-of-conflict/

Chicago

Fernandez, Lisa. Does climate change increase risk of conflict? Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, 2020. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/news-events/does-climate-change-increase-risk-of-conflict/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fernandez |first1=Lisa |title=Does climate change increase risk of conflict? |publisher=Yale Program on Climate Change Communication |date=2 September 2020 |url=https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/news-events/does-climate-change-increase-risk-of-conflict/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fernandez2020does, author = {Fernandez, Lisa}, title = {{Does climate change increase risk of conflict?}}, institution = {Yale Program on Climate Change Communication}, year = {2020}, month = sep, url = {https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/news-events/does-climate-change-increase-risk-of-conflict/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }