Exploring Resource and Climate Drivers of Conflict in Northern Mozambique

The conflict in Cabo Delgado is driven by a combination of political marginalisation, economic inequality, and climatic shocks. While the discovery of offshore natural gas promised development, it instead led to forced relocations, inadequate compensation, and unmet employment expectations, which Islamist militants have exploited for recruitment. These grievances are compounded by extreme weather events, including Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, which destroyed infrastructure and increased food insecurity. The document argues that military responses alone are insufficient and calls for inclusive natural resource governance and climate resilience strategies to address the root causes of the insurgency.

• The insurgency in Cabo Delgado is fueled by a combination of long-term political marginalisation, poverty, and local dissatisfaction regarding the unequal distribution of wealth and benefits from the region's natural resource boom.
• Liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, including investments by Total, ExxonMobil, and ENI, have failed to deliver promised economic upliftment and have instead created grievances through forced relocations and inadequate compensation for lost land and fishing grounds.
• Adverse climatic conditions act as a 'threat-multiplier' in the region; specifically, Cyclones Idai and Kenneth in 2019 caused massive infrastructure damage and food insecurity, creating an environment that extremists have exploited for recruitment.
• The region faces severe human security challenges beyond the conflict, including high rates of HIV/AIDS, cholera outbreaks, and a weakened health system where 27% of facilities in Cabo Delgado are non-functioning.
• The violent extremist group, known locally as 'Al-Shabaab', has strategically targeted foreign-owned LNG projects to signal its power and gain international attention, leading Total to declare force majeure and withdraw personnel in April 2021.
• The Mozambican government's security response has been criticized for being ineffective and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis through alleged abuses, including extrajudicial executions and arbitrary arrests.
• Effective resolution of the conflict requires an integrated approach that moves beyond military intervention to include transparent natural resource governance, climate vulnerability mitigation, and dialogue with citizens to manage economic expectations.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2021). Exploring Resource and Climate Drivers of Conflict in Northern Mozambique. https://saiia.org.za/research/exploring-resource-and-climate-drivers-of-conflict-in-northern-mozambique/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Exploring Resource and Climate Drivers of Conflict in Northern Mozambique. 2021. https://saiia.org.za/research/exploring-resource-and-climate-drivers-of-conflict-in-northern-mozambique/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Exploring Resource and Climate Drivers of Conflict in Northern Mozambique |date=9 July 2021 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/exploring-resource-and-climate-drivers-of-conflict-in-northern-mozambique/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2021exploring, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Exploring Resource and Climate Drivers of Conflict in Northern Mozambique}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2021}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/exploring-resource-and-climate-drivers-of-conflict-in-northern-mozambique/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }