Exploring Resource and Climate Drivers of Conflict in Northern Mozambique

This policy brief examines the drivers of violent conflict in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, arguing that the insurgency is fueled by a combination of political marginalization, grievances over the governance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) resources, and the amplifying effects of climate-related disasters.

• Since 2017, an Islamist militant group known locally as 'Al-Shabaab' has conducted violent attacks in Cabo Delgado, targeting government buildings and foreign-owned LNG projects to undermine the state and gain international attention. By April 2021, the conflict resulted in 887 organized violence events, 2,867 reported fatalities, and the displacement of approximately 700,000 people.
• The discovery of offshore natural gas reserves has exacerbated local grievances rather than providing economic upliftment. Major investments by Total ($20 billion), ExxonMobil ($30 billion), and ENI ($4.7 billion) have led to the relocation of hundreds of families who reported inadequate compensation, loss of cultivated land and fishing grounds, and a failure of anticipated job creation to materialize.
• Climatic shocks act as a 'threat-multiplier' in Cabo Delgado, creating conditions that extremists exploit for recruitment. Specifically, Cyclones Idai and Kenneth in 2019 caused massive infrastructure damage and food insecurity, while recurring droughts, deforestation, and floods (costing Mozambique an annual average of $440 million) have deteriorated the quality of life.
• The region's vulnerability is compounded by severe health crises and systemic underdevelopment. Cabo Delgado is the second poorest province in Mozambique, with 27% of its health facilities non-functioning due in part to the conflict, and it faces high rates of HIV/AIDS and cholera outbreaks, which impaired the response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The Mozambican government's response has been criticized as ineffective and harmful. State security forces deployed to protect LNG investments have been accused of extrajudicial executions, arbitrary arrests, and the abduction of civilians. Furthermore, the government was reticent to seek external help, only requesting SADC assistance in May 2020.
• To resolve the conflict, the author recommends an integrated approach that moves beyond military responses to include transparent and equitable natural resource governance, dialogue with citizens to manage economic expectations, and mechanisms to address climate vulnerability and the needs of marginalized communities.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2021). Exploring Resource and Climate Drivers of Conflict in Northern Mozambique. https://saiia.org.za/research/exploring-resource-and-climate-drivers-of-conflict-in-northern-mozambique/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Exploring Resource and Climate Drivers of Conflict in Northern Mozambique. 2021. https://saiia.org.za/research/exploring-resource-and-climate-drivers-of-conflict-in-northern-mozambique/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Exploring Resource and Climate Drivers of Conflict in Northern Mozambique |date=9 July 2021 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/exploring-resource-and-climate-drivers-of-conflict-in-northern-mozambique/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2021exploring, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Exploring Resource and Climate Drivers of Conflict in Northern Mozambique}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2021}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/exploring-resource-and-climate-drivers-of-conflict-in-northern-mozambique/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }