Converging Crisesin North Korea: Security, Stability & Climate Change

The report assesses the intersection of climate change and national security in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). It projects that by 2030 and 2050, intensified extreme rainfall, sea level rise, and crop yield failures will stress the regime's ability to provide public goods, potentially leading to domestic upheaval or regional conflict. Specific risks are identified for the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, the capital city of Pyongyang, and key coastal military and commercial hubs. The authors argue that these climate stressors could lead to miscalculations in military posture, increased migration, and strained bilateral relations with China and South Korea, while suggesting that climate cooperation could offer a new avenue for diplomatic engagement.

• Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of rice yield failures across North Korea's breadbasket from once every 7 years to once every 5 years by 2030, with failures becoming more likely along the Western coastline.
• By 2035, the South Hamgyong and North Pyŏngan provinces—which together produce 30% of the country's soybeans and 38% of its rice—could face up to three additional months of severe drought annually.
• The Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center faces increased flooding risks; a 1-in-100 year flood event from the 1971-2000 period is projected to become a 1-in-68 year event by 2050, potentially damaging coolant pumps and power systems.
• In Pyongyang, the probability of 1-in-100 year flood events is projected to nearly triple by 2050, becoming 1-in-34 year events.
• Sea levels in North Korea are projected to rise by 0.3 meters (0.98 feet) by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario, with approximately 553,000 people expected to be impacted by annual floods exacerbated by this rise.
• Coastal military infrastructure, including the Sinpo Naval Base and its submarine ballistic missile program components, faces inundation risks by 2050 that may necessitate expensive rebuilding or relocation.
• Climate-driven instability may worsen DPRK-ROK relations through unannounced dam releases, such as those from the Hwanggang Dam, and could increase mass migration to China and South Korea.

APA

Dill, C., Naegele, A., Baillargeon, N., Caparas, M., Dusseau, D., Holland, M., & Schwalm, C. (2021). Converging Crisesin North Korea: Security, Stability & Climate Change. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Converging-Crises-in-North-Korea_Security-Stability-and-Climate-Change_CSR_Woodwell.pdf

Chicago

Dill, Catherine, Alexandra Naegele, Natalie Baillargeon, Monica Caparas, Dominick Dusseau, Madeleine Holland, and Christopher Schwalm. Converging Crisesin North Korea: Security, Stability & Climate Change. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2021. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Converging-Crises-in-North-Korea_Security-Stability-and-Climate-Change_CSR_Woodwell.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{dill2021converging, author = {Dill, Catherine and Naegele, Alexandra and Baillargeon, Natalie and Caparas, Monica and Dusseau, Dominick and Holland, Madeleine and Schwalm, Christopher}, title = {{Converging Crisesin North Korea: Security, Stability \& Climate Change}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = jul, url = {https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Converging-Crises-in-North-Korea_Security-Stability-and-Climate-Change_CSR_Woodwell.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }