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The analysis finds that South Africa's population is likely to be significantly higher by 2030 than the NDP 2030 forecasts, primarily due to differing assumptions regarding migration. While the NDP assumes migration rates decline toward zero, the IFs model suggests a range of 64.4 to 68.8 million people by 2030 depending on migration trends. The brief highlights that migration is the largest source of demographic uncertainty, with substantial implications for provincial service delivery, particularly in Gauteng and the Western Cape. It also notes a continuing decline in fertility rates and a recovery in life expectancy driven by the scale-up of antiretroviral therapies (ARTs), though it predicts a rising burden of non-communicable diseases by 2040.

The document argues that while climate change is unlikely to be the sole direct cause of conflict, it acts as a 'threat multiplier' that intersects with poor political governance and socio-economic vulnerabilities to increase the risk of violence. In the Zambezi basin, this manifests as competition over dwindling water and food supplies, migration-induced tensions, and the manipulation of resource scarcity by political elites. Case studies of Bulawayo and Chinde highlight how chronic water shortages, flooding, and political marginalisation create flashpoints for unrest. The author emphasizes that strengthening Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) and community resilience through grassroots organisations and traditional governance can mitigate these risks.

The document advocates for an EU based on 'hospitality' and international solidarity, moving beyond trade agreements to ensure freedom of movement and access to services for all citizens. It highlights the challenges posed by austerity and the rise of xenophobic nationalism, while calling for a Common Asylum System and recognition of climate change's role in migration.

The author contends that current forms of solidarity, such as charitable aid to migrants and the poor, are insufficient and should be replaced by political action. Specifically, the text calls for the amendment of the Dublin II treaty to relieve Greece of a disproportionate burden regarding asylum seekers and urges Northern European citizens to pressure their governments to oppose austerity measures imposed by the Troika. Finally, it argues that Europe must take responsibility for the exploitation of wealth, child labor, and wars in Asia and Africa to eliminate the root causes of migration.

The document analyzes various migration patterns in Bangladesh—internal, cross-border, and international—concluding that displacement and short-term internal migration are the most sensitive to climate change. It highlights the role of extreme weather and river erosion in forcing movement and suggests that while migration can be an adaptation strategy, migrants often face exploitation and insecure living conditions.

The document analyzes historical census data to demonstrate that areas prone to climate-related hazards in Bangladesh have significantly lower population growth rates, indicating higher out-migration. It projects that an additional 9.6 million people will migrate from affected upazilas by 2050. The authors argue that migration can be an effective adaptation strategy if supported by government interventions, such as employment skills training and sustainable urban planning to prevent migrants from settling in risk-prone city areas.

The document details CDKN's support for Bangladesh in leading the global debate on loss and damage and its research into climate-induced displacement. It highlights the 'Adaptation Policy Options' project, which collects data on migration in five districts to inform policy, and the 'Action Research on Community Adaptation in Bangladesh' (ARCAB) programme, which focuses on long-term community-based adaptation and monitoring.

The document analyzes the shift from top-down public diplomacy to a more interactive digital age, exploring how social media affects political sentiment in China and across Africa. It argues that while technology allows for greater public engagement, its influence on actual policymaking varies by national context. In China, a complex negotiation exists between the state and various levels of public opinion (elite, sub-elite, and popular). In Africa, a 'technological leapfrog' is occurring via mobile access, yet in South Africa, social media has not yet become a significant tool for policy negotiation due to a lack of popular sentiment and deep-seated societal divisions. The author concludes that China–Africa relations remain primarily driven by leadership and economic interests, with public understanding remaining superficial and reactive.

The document details CDKN's support for the Government of Bangladesh in mainstreaming climate resilience through a three-block framework (enabling environment, policies/planning, and projects/programmes) and developing evidence-based policies on loss and damage and climate-induced migration. It highlights specific impacts in Sathkira District, where salinity intrusion caused total rice crop failure in 2009, and notes the existence of national funding mechanisms like the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund.

The document examines the critical water crisis in El Alto and La Paz, Bolivia, where rapid population growth and climate-driven glacier retreat are reducing water supplies. Using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool, the Stockholm Environment Institute identifies that current systems are highly vulnerable, with the El Alto system predicted to fail almost permanently between 2011 and 2030. The briefing recommends a combination of new reservoir construction (such as Khotia Khota and Kaluyo), significant reductions in urban and agricultural water leaks, and improved industrial wastewater recycling to build resilience. It emphasizes the need for watershed-based coordination and community participation in planning to manage the projected population increase to two million people in El Alto by 2050.

The document details CDKN's support for Bangladesh in advancing the 'Loss and Damage' agenda within the UNFCCC, including the creation of case studies and training for officials. It also highlights the development of a participatory monitoring and evaluation (M&E) tool for community-based adaptation (CBA) by the ARCAB partnership, which has been scaled up to Somalia and Ethiopia. Additionally, it mentions research on climate-induced displacement in Bangladesh conducted by the University of Sussex and the University of Bangladesh.

The document examines climate-induced migration in Bangladesh, highlighting it as an effective adaptation strategy for rural populations facing droughts, floods, and cyclones. While migration helps diversify livelihoods, migrants often face precarious living conditions in urban slums. The brief argues for a policy shift to support internal migration through improved infrastructure and services in destination areas.

The document assesses 'extreme outcomes'—near-catastrophic climate events and socially contingent responses—that are often underrepresented in economic assessments. It identifies key biogeophysical tipping elements, such as the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, and evaluates their potential to trigger severe economic losses and social instability. A high-end sea level rise scenario of 1.65m by the 2080s is estimated to cost approximately $1 trillion per year and displace millions. The brief also explores the nexus of climate change, state fragility, and forced migration, particularly in South Asia and Bangladesh, arguing that these 'wicked problems' require multiple lines of evidence and a shift toward building resilience rather than simple prediction.

The author contends that existing reactive decision-making frameworks are insufficient for climate change adaptation, which involves both frequent climatic hazards and slow-onset risks. He advocates for a shift from disaster management to disaster preparedness, citing Bangladesh's success in reducing cyclone fatalities as a model. The paper emphasizes that adaptation will require science-oriented approaches, increased climate literacy, and a global responsibility to manage planned relocation for communities in uninhabitable areas. Finally, it suggests that rich countries can learn from the participatory and institutional experiences of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and community-based adaptation initiatives.

The document examines climate change in Nepal, highlighting the region's high vulnerability due to diverse topography and reliance on rain-fed agriculture. It analyzes the risks of rapid-onset disasters like floods and slow-onset disasters like drought and forest fires, while advocating for a shift from rigid structural controls to flexible, community-based adaptive capacities.

The document argues that climate change may exacerbate international security risks in Africa by affecting water availability, food security, and migration, particularly due to the continent's reliance on climate-dependent sectors and fragile governance. It outlines specific threats, such as water scarcity and state fragility, and proposes strategies including improved climate projections and the integration of climate change into governance.

The report argues that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in Africa, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities such as poverty and poor governance to potentially trigger violent conflict. It identifies four primary areas of concern: increased water scarcity, decreased food security, large-scale climate-induced migration, and the erosion of state fragility. While acknowledging that environmental stress is rarely the sole cause of war, the document highlights how shifts in precipitation and temperature can intensify competition over resources and destabilize fragile states. The authors propose four strategies to mitigate these risks: improving climate projections, reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, implementing conflict-sensitive adaptation policies, and integrating climate risks into all levels of governance.

The report argues that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in Africa, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities such as poverty and poor governance. It identifies four primary drivers of instability: increasing water scarcity, reduced food security, large-scale climate-induced migration, and the overall impact on state fragility. While climate change can intensify conflicts, the document emphasizes that non-climatic factors—specifically governance and institutional capacity—determine whether these challenges lead to violent conflict. The authors propose four strategies for mitigation: improving climate projections, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, implementing adaptation measures, and integrating climate risks into all levels of governance.

The paper examines the nexus between migration and human security, focusing on the vulnerabilities of undocumented Zimbabweans in South Africa. It identifies push factors in Zimbabwe, such as economic collapse and political repression, and pull factors in South Africa, including economic prosperity. The author argues that the lack of legal documentation renders migrants susceptible to employment exploitation, inadequate shelter, and physical abuse in detention centres. The document also discusses the SADC Protocol on the Facilitation of Movement of Persons as a potential mechanism to reduce illegal migration and improve human security, while noting institutional failures in both Zimbabwe and South Africa that perpetuate the current crisis.

The paper investigates how climate change—specifically through resource scarcity, sea-level rise, and natural disasters—may increase the risk of armed conflict. It proposes a two-stage causal model where environmental changes trigger social catalysts such as economic instability, political instability, social fragmentation, migration, and inappropriate responses. The authors highlight a paradox: while global warming has accelerated, the frequency and severity of armed conflict have generally declined. Empirically, the authors find that statistical literature has failed to establish a robust, general association between resource scarcity and civil war, suggesting that conflict risk depends heavily on country-specific vulnerabilities and governance. The paper recommends prioritizing sustainable development in vulnerable societies and integrating security analysis into IPCC assessments.