Climate-related migration in Bangladesh

This policy brief analyzes the relationship between climate-related hazards—specifically inland flooding, storm surges, and riverbank erosion—and long-term migration patterns in Bangladesh. Using historical census data and World Bank projections, the authors estimate that an additional 9.6 million people are likely to migrate from affected upazilas (sub-districts) between 2011 and 2050. The document advocates for government interventions in employment skills training and urban planning to support migrants and reduce disaster risks in cities.

• Analysis of census data indicates that areas prone to climate-related shocks and stresses exhibit significantly lower population growth rates than unaffected areas, suggesting substantial out-migration. For example, upazilas experiencing 90 per cent inundation during the 1998 flood had population growth rates 44 to 76 per cent lower than those with 10 per cent flooding. Additionally, areas affected by riverbank erosion saw absolute population growth rates reduced by 20 per cent, and those most affected by Cyclone Sidr in 2011 had 81 per cent lower absolute population growth rates than less affected areas.
• It is projected that an additional 9.6 million people will migrate from upazilas affected by inland flooding, storm surges, and riverbank erosion between 2011 and 2050. This total is composed of an estimated 5.4 million migrants related to inland flooding (with 316,000 attributed to climate change alone), 2.3 million from storm surges (with 405,000 attributed to climate change alone), and 1.9 million from riverbank erosion.
• The World Bank projects significant future exposure to flooding by 2050: 21.1 million villagers may face inland flooding with water up to 30 centimetres high, and coastal flooding from storm surges could expose nearly 17 million people to depths greater than 1m and 13.5 million to depths greater than 3m.
• Climate-related hazards have caused severe economic damage in Bangladesh. The 1998 flood event resulted in losses and damages exceeding US$2 billion, representing 4.8 per cent of GDP. Similarly, Cyclone Sidr in 2007 caused estimated damages and losses of US$1.7 billion.
• The document recommends that the government introduce employment skills training in climate-stressed regions to help migrants economically benefit from their movement. Furthermore, urban planning must provide sustainable housing, health services, education, and public transport, while preventing the growth of unplanned urbanisation in risk-prone city areas which could increase disaster risk.

APA

Kniveton, D., Rowhani, P., & Martin, M. (2013). Climate-related migration in Bangladesh. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/PB-3-max-29102013.pdf

Chicago

Kniveton, Dominic, Pedram Rowhani, and Maxmillan Martin. Climate-related migration in Bangladesh. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2013. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/PB-3-max-29102013.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kniveton |first1=Dominic |last2=Rowhani |first2=Pedram |last3=Martin |first3=Maxmillan |title=Climate-related migration in Bangladesh |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=April 2013 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/PB-3-max-29102013.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kniveton2013climaterelated, author = {Kniveton, Dominic and Rowhani, Pedram and Martin, Maxmillan}, title = {{Climate-related migration in Bangladesh}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2013}, month = apr, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/PB-3-max-29102013.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }