Climate Change and Security in Africa

The report argues that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in Africa, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities such as poverty and poor governance to potentially trigger violent conflict. It identifies four primary areas of concern: increased water scarcity, decreased food security, large-scale climate-induced migration, and the erosion of state fragility. While acknowledging that environmental stress is rarely the sole cause of war, the document highlights how shifts in precipitation and temperature can intensify competition over resources and destabilize fragile states. The authors propose four strategies to mitigate these risks: improving climate projections, reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, implementing conflict-sensitive adaptation policies, and integrating climate risks into all levels of governance.

• Climate change is characterized as a 'threat multiplier' that does not necessarily cause conflict on its own but intensifies existing socio-economic and political vulnerabilities, such as water scarcity and food insecurity.
• Africa is considered the continent most susceptible to climate-induced conflict due to its heavy reliance on climate-dependent sectors like rain-fed agriculture and a history of ethnic and political instability, despite contributing the least to global greenhouse gas emissions.
• Water scarcity is a significant security risk; the IPCC estimates that by 2050, between 350 and 600 million people in Africa could be at risk of increased water stress. While water often encourages cooperation, shared river basins can also increase the likelihood of conflict between neighboring countries.
• Climate-induced migration may trigger conflict when large population movements redraw ethnic maps or bring different groups into competition for dwindling resources, particularly in contexts of poor governance and easy access to small arms.
• Climate change threatens to overwhelm the capacity of fragile states to provide basic services, potentially tipping them toward socio-economic and political collapse. This is exacerbated by the economic burden of climate-related disasters and the spread of infectious diseases like malaria.
• There is scientific uncertainty regarding the direct causal link between climate change and violent conflict, partly because regional climate models for Africa are hindered by a lack of primary meteorological data.
• The report identifies 'non-linear' events—critical thresholds where climate change takes on its own momentum—as a high-impact unknown that could lead to incalculable consequences, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet causing a seven-meter rise in global sea levels.

APA

Brown, O., & Crawford, A. (2009). Climate Change and Security in Africa. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_security_africa.pdf

Chicago

Brown, Oli, and Alec Crawford. Climate Change and Security in Africa. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_security_africa.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Brown |first1=Oli |last2=Crawford |first2=Alec |title=Climate Change and Security in Africa |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=March 2009 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_security_africa.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{brown2009climate, author = {Brown, Oli and Crawford, Alec}, title = {{Climate Change and Security in Africa}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, month = mar, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_security_africa.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }