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This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines global 'wildcards' and megatrends—including great-power instability, generative AI, and the biosphere crisis—that could disrupt future scenarios for Africa and the world by 2043.

This research paper examines the 'anticipatory capacity' of farmers in Peru's Ica Basin to respond to global change across an extreme elevation gradient. The study finds that a lack of access to weather forecasts and market information, exacerbated by poor infrastructure maintenance and telecommunication gaps, undermines the resilience of smallholders and upstream producers compared to the coastal agro-export sector.

This executive summary details a study on the institutional capacity to respond to climate change impacts on water resources and agriculture across three Andean river basins in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile. The research identifies significant gaps in adaptive capacity, particularly for vulnerable populations, and suggests policy interventions to mitigate climate and water stresses.

This project report describes the creation of a shared platform to understand socio-ecological resilience and adaptive capacity in the face of large-scale environmental change, specifically focusing on seasonally dry forests in South America.

This research paper from the Stockholm Environment Institute analyzes the global interactions between Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets and the 1.5°C climate target, finding that these goals are generally synergetic.

This report synthesises 50 'Voices from the Frontline' stories from June 2020 to October 2021, documenting how local communities in Asia and the Pacific, Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean coped with the compounding effects of Covid-19, climate change, and socioeconomic vulnerability. It examines these experiences through the lens of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), highlighting grassroots resilience and the need for external actors to support locally-led solutions.

This research paper examines the adaptive capacity of smallholder rural households in Asia to cope with climate variability and change, utilizing a rural livelihoods framework and data from nearly 600 participants.

The IAI Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC) report from June 2017 details the committee's activities, including the election of Edwin Castellanos as chair, participation in international climate dialogues, and the planning of two publications to mark the IAI's 25th anniversary.

This policy brief examines climate vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Saint Lucia, specifically focusing on the Soufriere district through the GIVRAPD project's approach to coastal resilience and stakeholder partnerships.

This working paper examines the adaptive capacity of Soufriere, St Lucia, as part of the Global Islands’ Vulnerability Research Adaptation Policy Development (GIVRAPD) project. It utilizes the Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) framework to assess socio-cultural, economic, institutional, and ecological factors shaping vulnerability, while evaluating the framework's applicability across different geographical contexts.

This working paper examines the adaptive capacity of Whitehouse, Jamaica, to climate change as part of the Global Islands’ Vulnerability Research Adaptation Policy Development (GIVRAPD) project. It utilizes the Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) framework to assess socio-cultural, economic, institutional, and ecological factors shaping local vulnerability.

This case study examines human vulnerability to climate change, arguing that vulnerability is determined by both exogenous hazards and the endogenous characteristics of human systems. It advocates for an evolutionary perspective to understand adaptive capacity and emphasizes the necessity of qualitative research to uncover structural and historical root causes of vulnerability.

This working paper outlines Ethiopia's experience in planning for a climate-resilient green economy, drawing from a study on climate compatible development. It highlights the role of political leadership, national ownership, and the strategic use of international climate finance in implementing cross-sectoral climate goals.

This research paper details a participatory process using Knowledge elicitation tools (KnETs) in southeast Cameroon to formalize qualitative data on livelihood decision-making, which is then used to inform social simulation models for sustainable forest management.

This research paper proposes a rights-based analytical tool to broaden the understanding of adaptive capacity by focusing on the socio-political causes of exclusion and marginalization, illustrated through a case study of aquatic agricultural systems in Timor-Leste.

This report provides a comparative analysis of the adaptive capacity and adaptation strategies of small-scale rice farm households in Lao PDR and the Philippines, focusing on two top rice-producing provinces in each country across three ecozones (irrigated lowland, rainfed lowland, and rainfed upland) and two cropping seasons.

Since the 1960s, Ethiopia has seen mean annual temperature increases of 0.5-1.3°C and a decrease in cold nights. Precipitation trends from 1981-2000 show declining short rains (Feb-Apr) and slight increases in long rains (Jun-Aug) and late-year rains (Oct-Nov), potentially threatening food security. Additionally, flooding has become more common, with major events in 1997 and 2006.

This research paper, produced by the Africa Climate Change Resilience Alliance (ACCRA), examines the impact of development interventions on local adaptive capacity in Ethiopia. It utilizes the Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) framework to argue that interventions must better support individual agency, reassess scale and scope, and utilize evidence-based decision-making to build resilience through continuous learning and innovation.

This report summarizes research and capacity-building activities conducted by the Africa Climate Change Resilience Alliance (ACCRA) between 2010 and 2011 across three sites in Ethiopia. The work focuses on the intersection of climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and development planning to improve the adaptive capacity of rural livelihoods.

This policy brief summarizes research conducted by the Africa Climate Change Resilience Alliance (ACCRA) between 2010 and 2011 across three sites in Ethiopia. It examines how development interventions in social protection, sustainable livelihoods, and disaster risk management contribute to the adaptive capacity of rural communities to handle climate-related hazards and rising temperatures.