Wildcards and Megatrends: Great Power Implosion, Technology and Climate Change

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines global 'wildcards' and megatrends—including great-power instability, generative AI, and the biosphere crisis—that could disrupt future scenarios for Africa and the world by 2043.

• The stability of major global powers is a critical wildcard; internal division and violence in the US may accelerate its relative decline in power and influence, potentially leading to a 'Divided World' or 'World at War' scenario, unless a 'Grand Bargain' is reached with China. Similarly, the democratisation of China or Russia would likely cause significant economic disruption, with the impact of Chinese political change being global in scale.
• Climate change represents the most significant threat to humanity, with Africa being especially vulnerable due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture and weak adaptive capacity. The report warns that large areas of Africa could become uninhabitable by midcentury or sooner as the continent warms faster than the global average.
• Generative artificial intelligence is identified as a wildcard that could trigger a 'race to the bottom' in the development of autonomous killer systems if regulation is absent. Economically, AI is currently increasing demand for high-skilled labor and capital rather than creating broad opportunities for poor and middle-income countries, while also providing tools for surveillance and social control by autocratic governments and private firms.
• There is a growing divide between the West and the Global South, exacerbated by events such as the hoarding of COVID-19 vaccines by European manufacturers. This shift is evidenced by the Global South's ambivalence toward the invasion of Ukraine, the expansion of BRICS in September 2023, and differing Western and Global South reactions to events in Gaza.
• Regional stability in Europe and Asia could shift global power dynamics. A breakup of the EU would have significant adverse global effects, whereas enlargement including Türkiye or a democratic Russia could be positive. In Asia, while cooperation between Japan, Korea, India, and China could lead to global dominance, this is deemed unlikely due to existing tensions, particularly between China and India.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Wildcards and Megatrends: Great Power Implosion, Technology and Climate Change. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=07-wildcards

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Wildcards and Megatrends: Great Power Implosion, Technology and Climate Change. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=07-wildcards.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Wildcards and Megatrends: Great Power Implosion, Technology and Climate Change |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=6 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=07-wildcards |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026wildcards, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Wildcards and Megatrends: Great Power Implosion, Technology and Climate Change}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=07-wildcards}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }