Wildcards and Megatrends: Great Power Implosion, Technology and Climate Change

The report identifies several disruptive factors that could alter global trajectories, including the potential implosion of major powers like the US or China, the risks of generative AI, and the accelerating biosphere crisis. It highlights Africa's extreme vulnerability to climate change and warns that AI may exacerbate economic inequality and state surveillance. The text also notes a growing divide between the West and the Global South, driven by perceived self-centeredness during the COVID-19 pandemic and differing geopolitical responses to conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

• The potential implosion or democratisation of great powers could cause severe global instability. A US decline, accelerated by internal division and the undermining of the rules-based system, could lead to a 'Divided World' or 'World at War', though a 'Grand Bargain' with China remains a possibility. Similarly, the democratisation of China is expected to be 'violent and economically disruptive', with global consequences.
• Climate change is identified as the most significant threat to humanity, with Africa being particularly susceptible due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture and weak adaptive capacity. The report warns that the continent is warming faster than the global average, and some areas may become 'uninhabitable by midcentury or earlier'.
• Generative artificial intelligence is treated as a 'wildcard' that could lead to a 'race to the bottom' in the development of autonomous killer systems if regulation fails. Economically, AI is currently increasing demand for high-skilled labor and capital rather than creating broad opportunities for poor and middle-income countries, while also providing tools for state surveillance and social control.
• There is a widening geopolitical divide between the West and the Global South, exacerbated by Western actions during the COVID-19 pandemic regarding vaccine patents and hoarding. This is evidenced by the Global South's ambivalence toward the invasion of Ukraine, the expansion of BRICS in September 2023, and differing reactions to events in Gaza.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Wildcards and Megatrends: Great Power Implosion, Technology and Climate Change. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=07-wildcards

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Wildcards and Megatrends: Great Power Implosion, Technology and Climate Change. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=07-wildcards.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Wildcards and Megatrends: Great Power Implosion, Technology and Climate Change |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=6 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=07-wildcards |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026wildcards, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Wildcards and Megatrends: Great Power Implosion, Technology and Climate Change}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=18-africa-in-the-world&topic=07-wildcards}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }