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The document argues that while climate change is unlikely to be the sole direct cause of conflict, it acts as a 'threat multiplier' that intersects with poor political governance and socio-economic vulnerabilities to increase the risk of violence. In the Zambezi basin, this manifests as competition over dwindling water and food supplies, migration-induced tensions, and the manipulation of resource scarcity by political elites. Case studies of Bulawayo and Chinde highlight how chronic water shortages, flooding, and political marginalisation create flashpoints for unrest. The author emphasizes that strengthening Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) and community resilience through grassroots organisations and traditional governance can mitigate these risks.

The relationship between Mozambique and Malawi has historically been marked by distrust, peaking during the second term of Malawi's President Bingu wa Mutharika. However, since President Joyce Banda took office in April 2012, relations have warmed, leading to the revival of critical infrastructure projects like the Interconnector Project and the Nacala Development Corridor. The document argues that mutual economic interdependency, particularly Malawi's need for sea access and energy security, provides a foundation for sustained stability.