Changements climatiques et sécurité en Afrique

The report argues that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in Africa, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities such as poverty and poor governance. It identifies four primary drivers of instability: increasing water scarcity, reduced food security, large-scale climate-induced migration, and the overall impact on state fragility. While climate change can intensify conflicts, the document emphasizes that non-climatic factors—specifically governance and institutional capacity—determine whether these challenges lead to violent conflict. The authors propose four strategies for mitigation: improving climate projections, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, implementing adaptation measures, and integrating climate risks into all levels of governance.

• Climate change is characterized as a "threat multiplier" that does not necessarily cause conflict on its own but intensifies existing vulnerabilities, such as water scarcity and food insecurity, making them harder to resolve.
• Africa is considered the continent most at risk of climate-generated conflicts because its economy relies heavily on climate-dependent sectors like rain-fed agriculture and it has a history of resource, ethnic, and political conflicts.
• Water scarcity is a significant security risk; the IPCC estimates that by 2050, between 350 and 600 million additional people in Africa may face increased water stress.
• Food insecurity is linked to climate change through the loss of arable land; it is predicted that arid and semi-arid regions could expand by 5% to 8%, resulting in a productivity loss of 50 to 90 million hectares of arable land by 2080.
• Climate-induced migration can trigger violent conflict, particularly when large-scale population movements redraw ethnic maps or when political responses to migrants are exclusionary, as seen in the tensions leading to the 2002 civil war in Côte d'Ivoire.
• The cumulative effects of food and water insecurity, migration, and natural disasters threaten to exceed the capacity of fragile states to provide basic services, potentially leading to socio-economic and political collapse.
• Non-linear climate events, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, could have global consequences that affect Africa, including a potential 7-meter rise in sea levels and disruptions to West African fisheries.
• The likelihood of climate change transitioning from a development challenge to a security threat depends on three factors: the speed of climate change, the institutional adaptation capacity of countries, and the reactions of governments and communities.

APA

Brown, O., & Crawford, A. (2009). Changements climatiques et sécurité en Afrique. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_security_africa_fr.pdf

Chicago

Brown, Oli, and Alec Crawford. Changements climatiques et sécurité en Afrique. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_security_africa_fr.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Brown |first1=Oli |last2=Crawford |first2=Alec |title=Changements climatiques et sécurité en Afrique |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=March 2009 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_security_africa_fr.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{brown2009changements, author = {Brown, Oli and Crawford, Alec}, title = {{Changements climatiques et sécurité en Afrique}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, month = mar, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_security_africa_fr.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }