POPULATION FUTURES: REVISITING SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies evaluates population projections for South Africa up to 2050, comparing the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030 with simulations from the International Futures (IFs) model. The analysis highlights significant discrepancies in population forecasts, primarily driven by differing assumptions regarding international migration, and explores the impact of fertility and mortality trends, including the role of antiretroviral therapies (ARTs) in increasing life expectancy.

• The IFs model projects a significantly higher population for South Africa by 2030 than the NDP 2030 base scenario. The IFs Base Case forecasts 66.4 million people, while the NDP base scenario forecasts 58.5 million. Even the IFs 'Slowing Migration' scenario, which predicts 64.4 million by 2030, exceeds the NDP's 'High Migration Scenario' by approximately 3 million people.
• Migration is identified as the primary source of uncertainty in population forecasting for South Africa. Sensitivity analysis shows that variations in migration result in a wider range of population projections (10.5 million) compared to variations in fertility (6.7 million) or HIV/AIDS deaths (2.4 million) by 2050.
• South Africa's total fertility rate has declined from approximately 6.4 children per woman in 1960 to 2.5 in 2010. The IFs Base Case forecasts a further decline to approximately 1.9 children per woman by 2030, which is below the population replacement rate of 2.1.
• The scale-up of antiretroviral therapies (ARTs) has significantly improved life expectancy since 2005. The number of patients receiving ARTs increased from 923,000 in February 2010 to 1.9 million by the time of the report. The IFs Base Case projects life expectancy will reach 58 years by 2030, though this remains below the NDP target of 70 years.
• South Africa faces a 'quadruple burden' of diseases: high prevalence of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, high maternal and child mortality, increasing non-communicable diseases (such as cancer and cardiovascular diseases), and violence and injuries. Non-communicable disease deaths are projected to overtake communicable disease deaths by 2040.
• Provincial forecasts indicate substantial growth in Gauteng and the Western Cape. The IFs Base Case projects Gauteng's population will reach 17 million by 2030 and over 23 million by 2050, potentially reaching a density of 12,750 people per square kilometre by mid-century.

APA

Go, A., Moyer, J., Rafa, M., & Schünemann, J. (2013). POPULATION FUTURES: REVISITING SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF7_15Oct2013V2.pdf

Chicago

Go, Ara, Jonathan Moyer, Mickey Rafa, and Julia Schünemann. POPULATION FUTURES: REVISITING SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030. Institute for Security Studies, 2013. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF7_15Oct2013V2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Go |first1=Ara |last2=Moyer |first2=Jonathan |last3=Rafa |first3=Mickey |last4=Schünemann |first4=Julia |title=POPULATION FUTURES: REVISITING SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=October 2013 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF7_15Oct2013V2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{go2013population, author = {Go, Ara and Moyer, Jonathan and Rafa, Mickey and Schünemann, Julia}, title = {{POPULATION FUTURES: REVISITING SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2013}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF7_15Oct2013V2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }