POPULATION FUTURES: REVISITING SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030

The analysis finds that South Africa's population is likely to be significantly higher by 2030 than the NDP 2030 forecasts, primarily due to differing assumptions regarding migration. While the NDP assumes migration rates decline toward zero, the IFs model suggests a range of 64.4 to 68.8 million people by 2030 depending on migration trends. The brief highlights that migration is the largest source of demographic uncertainty, with substantial implications for provincial service delivery, particularly in Gauteng and the Western Cape. It also notes a continuing decline in fertility rates and a recovery in life expectancy driven by the scale-up of antiretroviral therapies (ARTs), though it predicts a rising burden of non-communicable diseases by 2040.

• The IFs model projects a significantly higher population for South Africa by 2030 than the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030. Depending on migration levels, the population is projected to be 64.4 million (declining in-migration), 66.4 million (stable in-migration), or 68.8 million (increasing in-migration). Even the lowest IFs scenario exceeds the NDP's high migration scenario by approximately 3 million people.
• Migration is identified as the primary driver of uncertainty in South African population forecasting. Sensitivity analysis shows that variations in migration produce a wider range of population projections (10.5 million difference in 2050) compared to variations in fertility (6.7 million) or HIV/AIDS deaths (2.4 million).
• The IFs Base Case forecasts a continued decline in South Africa's total fertility rate to approximately 1.9 children per woman by 2030, which is below the population replacement rate of 2.1.
• Life expectancy in South Africa has improved since 2005 due to the scale-up of antiretroviral therapies (ARTs), though the IFs Base Case projects it will only reach 58 years by 2030, falling short of the NDP target of 70 years.
• South Africa is expected to experience a shift in mortality drivers, with the burden of non-communicable diseases projected to overtake the burden of communicable diseases by 2040.
• Provincial forecasts indicate substantial growth in Gauteng and the Western Cape. By 2030, Gauteng is projected to have 17 million people (3 million more than the NDP forecast) and could reach 23 million by 2050, potentially reaching a density of 12,750 people per square kilometre.

APA

Go, A., Moyer, J., Rafa, M., & Schünemann, J. (2013). POPULATION FUTURES: REVISITING SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF7_15Oct2013V2.pdf

Chicago

Go, Ara, Jonathan Moyer, Mickey Rafa, and Julia Schünemann. POPULATION FUTURES: REVISITING SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030. Institute for Security Studies, 2013. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF7_15Oct2013V2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Go |first1=Ara |last2=Moyer |first2=Jonathan |last3=Rafa |first3=Mickey |last4=Schünemann |first4=Julia |title=POPULATION FUTURES: REVISITING SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=October 2013 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF7_15Oct2013V2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{go2013population, author = {Go, Ara and Moyer, Jonathan and Rafa, Mickey and Schünemann, Julia}, title = {{POPULATION FUTURES: REVISITING SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2013}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF7_15Oct2013V2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }