Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict

The paper investigates how climate change—specifically through resource scarcity, sea-level rise, and natural disasters—may increase the risk of armed conflict. It proposes a two-stage causal model where environmental changes trigger social catalysts such as economic instability, political instability, social fragmentation, migration, and inappropriate responses. The authors highlight a paradox: while global warming has accelerated, the frequency and severity of armed conflict have generally declined. Empirically, the authors find that statistical literature has failed to establish a robust, general association between resource scarcity and civil war, suggesting that conflict risk depends heavily on country-specific vulnerabilities and governance. The paper recommends prioritizing sustainable development in vulnerable societies and integrating security analysis into IPCC assessments.

• Climate change is theorized to increase conflict risk through three primary environmental processes: the intensification of natural disasters, increasing resource scarcity, and sea-level rise, which together threaten infrastructure, health, and livelihoods.
• The relationship between climate change and armed conflict is indirect, operating through five potential social catalysts: economic instability, political instability, social fragmentation, migration, and inappropriate responses.
• There is a notable empirical paradox where the visible effects of global warming have emerged during a period of dramatic reduction in the frequency and severity of global armed conflict.
• Statistical research has failed to find a consistent and robust association between resource scarcity and civil war, contrasting with single-case analyses that suggest scarcity contributes to violence only when interacting with other conflict-promoting factors.
• The risk of conflict resulting from climate change is highest in societies with pre-existing vulnerabilities, such as bad governance, high social inequality, and a history of violence, particularly in East-Central Africa, the Middle East, and Central and East Asia.
• Democratic regimes are expected to handle climate-induced challenges more peacefully than non-democratic or inconsistent systems due to higher levels of accountability, justice, and responsiveness.
• Existing empirical literature on environmental conflict is limited by overly aggregated research designs, a lack of reliable time-varying environmental data, and a focus on the onset of severe wars rather than low-level or non-state violence.
• Countermeasures to climate change, such as drastic CO2 emission reductions in high-growth developing nations or the expansion of biofuel programs, may themselves create new security risks and social unrest.

APA

Buhaug, H., Gleditsch, N. P., & Theisen, O. M. (2008). Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/74e53368-12c8-4f9c-b256-c31d58645820/Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Buhaug, Halvard, Nils Petter Gleditsch, and Ole Magnus Theisen. Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2008. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/74e53368-12c8-4f9c-b256-c31d58645820/Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Buhaug |first1=Halvard |last2=Gleditsch |first2=Nils Petter |last3=Theisen |first3=Ole Magnus |title=Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=25 February 2008 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/74e53368-12c8-4f9c-b256-c31d58645820/Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{buhaug2008implications, author = {Buhaug, Halvard and Gleditsch, Nils Petter and Theisen, Ole Magnus}, title = {{Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2008}, month = feb, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/74e53368-12c8-4f9c-b256-c31d58645820/Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }