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fossil-fuel-emissions-have-rapidly-worsened-european-heatwaves-in-just-a-few-decades
The June 2026 heatwave in Western Europe is the most severe ever recorded for the region, with temperatures 5–12°C above seasonal averages. Analysis shows that such an event would have been virtually impossible in 1976 and significantly rarer in 2003, indicating that extreme heat is increasing rapidly due to global warming. The event caused widespread disruption to transport, energy systems, and health services, with 45% of European cities breaking indoor Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) thresholds.
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Document type: Research paper
Connecting Capital within African Agrifood Systems
The report analyzes the gap between the supply and demand of climate finance in African agrifood systems, drawing on CPI's experience with 23 agribusinesses and 17 finance vehicles. It identifies a systemic misalignment where investors prioritize risk-adjusted returns and export-oriented cash crops, while enterprises often operate across the entire value chain and focus on staple crops essential for food security. The document argues that while enterprise-level technical assistance is helpful, closing the investment gap requires vehicle-level interventions that better price risk and align mandates with market realities. Key findings highlight a geographic concentration of capital in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda, and a disconnect between the upstream focus of finance vehicles and the end-to-end operations of agribusinesses.
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Document type: Report
Report of the forty-fourth meeting of the Board, 25 – 28 March 2026
The GCF Board approved 18 funding proposals totaling USD 960.3 million and accredited 10 new entities. A major outcome was the selection of host cities for regional presence: Panama City (Latin America and Caribbean), Amman (Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Middle East), Nairobi and Abidjan (Africa), and Suva (Pacific). The Board also restructured its committees, approved a training programme, and established a roadmap for the 2028–2031 Strategic Plan.
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Document type: Report
Fiche renseignements : Sécheresse
The document details how climate change intensifies droughts through higher temperatures and altered precipitation, leading to severe economic losses in agriculture and hydropower, increased wildfire risks, and public health threats in Canada.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Climate Change and Drought
Climate change is increasing the risk and severity of droughts globally and across Canada, leading to significant economic losses in agriculture and hydroelectricity, increased wildfire risk, and public health threats. In Canada, the southern Prairies and interior British Columbia are particularly vulnerable, with 2025 seeing 85% of the country abnormally dry. The document advocates for proactive drought response plans, water conservation, and strengthened agricultural resilience to mitigate these impacts.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Climate immobility justice under transboundary hydropower: evidence from Northeast Thailand
The paper uses Nancy Fraser’s three-dimensional justice framework to analyze how hydropower projects on the Mekong River generate climate (im)mobility injustices for communities in Northeast Thailand. It identifies three interconnected processes: economic destabilization of river-based livelihoods, the erosion of ecological knowledge and place-based attachments, and political exclusions that prevent affected parties from making claims. The research, based on 2024 fieldwork and interviews, highlights how these factors constrain the ability of communities to move or stay as they desire and how these communities contest such injustices.
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Document type: Research paper
Water retention to reduce algal blooms in Canadian lakes
The De Salaberry water retention project study (2019-2023) demonstrates that small naturalized dams can reduce phosphorus loads while mitigating floods and erosion, though performance varies based on retention time and incoming loads. The report argues that standard design practices often fail to maximize phosphorus reduction and recommends strategic targeting of phosphorus hot spots and increased retention times to better combat eutrophication and harmful algal blooms in Canadian freshwater systems.
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Document type: Report
Zimbabwe
The report analyzes Zimbabwe's development path to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) with various sectoral and combined scenarios. It identifies manufacturing as the most critical driver for GDP growth and poverty reduction. While the Current Path suggests slow progress toward Sustainable Development Goals, the 'Combined scenario'—integrating reforms in governance, infrastructure, health, and trade—could significantly increase GDP per capita, reduce extreme poverty to 3%, and transition the energy system toward renewables, drastically cutting carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
Tunisia Development Futures
The report analyzes Tunisia's development prospects up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' of modest growth with various sectoral scenarios. It finds that while Tunisia has strong foundations in education and health, it faces structural stagnation, high youth unemployment, and an energy deficit. A 'Combined scenario' integrating reforms in governance, manufacturing, agriculture, and trade could significantly boost GDP, reduce extreme poverty to 0.7%, and lower the Gini coefficient to 0.30, though a persistent energy gap remains.
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Document type: Report
South Africa Development Futures
The report examines South Africa's development prospects to 2043, contrasting a 'Current Path' of modest growth and persistent poverty with a 'Combined scenario' where strategic interventions in manufacturing, trade, infrastructure, and governance lead to a 33% increase in GDP per capita. It highlights critical structural constraints, including a high disease burden, poor education quality, and energy insecurity, while proposing a transition toward an export-led, green economy.
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Document type: Report
Republic of the Congo Development Futures
The report analyzes the Republic of the Congo's economic and social outlook to 2043. It highlights a heavy dependence on oil, high poverty rates, and vulnerability to climate change. It evaluates 11 sectoral scenarios—including free trade, leapfrogging, and manufacturing—demonstrating that an integrated approach (Combined Agenda 2063) could significantly increase GDP per capita and reduce poverty, though it would lead to higher carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
Tunisia: Conclusion and Recommendations
The report analyzes Tunisia's economic and social outlook, contrasting a 'Current Path' of moderate growth with a 'Combined scenario' that predicts significant improvements in GDP, poverty, and inequality by 2043. It argues that current gains are insufficient to meet Vision Tunisie 2035 and Agenda 2063 goals without strategic reforms. Key recommendations include diversifying energy sources, integrating climate resilience into planning, and expanding manufacturing and agricultural productivity to overcome constraints like high youth unemployment and energy deficits.
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Document type: Report
Rwanda Background
The document outlines Rwanda's transition from a low-income country to its aspirations for high-income status by 2050. It details the 'Vision 2050' strategic plan, which focuses on human development, competitiveness, agriculture, urbanisation, and state institutions. While Rwanda has seen significant GDP growth—averaging 7.2% from 2009 to 2019—it faces structural challenges including high inflation, rising external debt, and a large informal sector. The report also notes the role of the Rwanda Energy Group and the use of Lake Kivu for biogas extraction to meet energy needs.
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Document type: Research paper
South Sudan: Conclusion and Recommendations
The report evaluates South Sudan's development prospects through 2043, contrasting a 'Current Path' of gradual improvement with a 'Combined scenario' of integrated reforms. While the current path is deemed insufficient to meet the goals of the SSDP 2026–2036, the combined approach suggests that coordinated investments in agriculture, human capital, and infrastructure can accelerate poverty reduction and economic diversification. Key recommendations include scaling solar energy, implementing climate-smart agriculture, and leveraging the AfCFTA to reduce reliance on the oil sector.
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Document type: Report
Djibouti Development Futures
The report analyzes Djibouti's development path to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' baseline with sectoral and combined scenarios. While the Current Path shows steady growth, it falls short of Vision 2035 targets. A 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms in governance, finance, and trade could accelerate GDP growth to 8.9% and triple per capita income. The analysis emphasizes that Djibouti's primary constraints are not infrastructure gaps, but rather the efficiency and inclusiveness of its growth model, which remains heavily dependent on port logistics and external debt.
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Document type: Report
Africa Development Futures
The report analyses Africa's development path to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' baseline with various sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined' scenario. While the Current Path shows steady growth, it fails to meet Agenda 2063 targets, leaving 19.1% of the population in extreme poverty. The Combined scenario demonstrates that coordinated reforms in governance, trade (AfCFTA), education, and infrastructure could raise GDP (MER) to US$8.87 trillion, increase GDP per capita (PPP) to US$8,040, and reduce extreme poverty to 10.9%. Key findings highlight the critical role of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and governance as the most transformative levers for income growth and poverty reduction. The report also details a significant energy gap, where demand is projected to outpace production by 2043 despite massive solar potential, and a health transition marked by a 'double burden' of persisting communicable diseases and rapidly rising non-communicable diseases.
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Document type: Report
Carta de posicionamento frente ao Super El Niño e seus impactos no Brasil
A coalition of 70 organizations warns that a 'Super El Niño'—a phenomenon not seen since 1870—will cause extreme rainfall, floods, and droughts in Brazil. The letter criticizes the government's history of reacting only after disasters and its tendency to prioritize economically valued central urban areas over peripheries inhabited by Black, quilombola, and traditional populations. The authors demand transformational climate adaptation that prioritizes racial and gender equity, secure housing over forced removals, and the integration of community-led risk management into federal policy. Specific requests for information and meetings are directed to the Casa Civil, the Ministry of Integration and Regional Development, the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, and the Ministry of Cities.
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Document type: Statement
Ce que la terre sait déjà : récits de récolte des Métis comme connaissance climatique
The document posits that the lived experience and intergenerational knowledge of Métis harvesters provide more granular and longitudinal climate data than official monitoring systems. It highlights how environmental changes—such as unpredictable berry ripening and shifting animal populations—are detected by harvesters long before they appear in scientific datasets. The author argues that colonial frameworks have marginalized this knowledge, and that true climate resilience requires integrating Métis observation as primary data, protecting harvesting rights, and supporting the intergenerational transmission of land-based knowledge.
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Document type: Case study
What the Land Knows: Métis Harvesting Narratives as Climate Knowledge
The document posits that the lived experience and intergenerational knowledge of Métis harvesters provide more granular and place-specific climate data than formal monitoring systems. It highlights how changing environmental patterns—such as unpredictable saskatoon berry ripening and altered freeze-thaw cycles—are already evident to harvesters. The author argues that the erosion of harvesting access due to industrial contamination, habitat loss, and social threats constitutes a climate impact and a violation of food sovereignty. The text calls for a redesign of climate monitoring to co-develop frameworks with Métis communities and treat the transmission of harvesting knowledge as a priority for climate adaptation.
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Document type: Case study
Analysis: Climate and the Local and Devolved Elections 2026
An analysis of 76 election leaflets and several party manifestos from the 2026 local and devolved elections in the UK reveals that explicit mentions of 'climate' were very low, particularly in local leaflets. While manifestos from parties like the SNP and Scottish Greens used climate terminology more frequently, most political communication shifted toward 'climate-adjacent' issues. These include energy affordability, fairness framings regarding the energy transition, and hyper-local concerns such as flooding, transport, and the preservation of green spaces. The report notes a breakdown in cross-party consensus on net zero, evidenced by its absence in the Welsh Conservatives' manifesto and anti-renewable messaging from Reform UK.
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Document type: Research paper