Tunisia: Conclusion and Recommendations

This report provides a conclusion and set of policy recommendations for Tunisia's development trajectory toward 2043. It compares a 'Current Path' scenario, which is deemed insufficient to meet national and continental goals, against a 'Combined' scenario of coordinated interventions across eight sectors to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth.

• Under the 'Current Path' scenario, Tunisia is projected to see moderate GDP growth and human development improvements, but these will not be enough to achieve the goals of Agenda 2063 and Vision Tunisie 2035 without strategic investment and policy reform.
• The 'Combined' scenario, which utilizes a cross-sectoral approach, projects that by 2043 Tunisia's GDP (MER) will reach US$100.88 billion, GDP per capita (PPP) will hit US$15,630, the Gini coefficient for inequality will improve to 0.30, and extreme poverty will drop to 0.7%.
• Tunisia's economic growth is currently hindered by several factors, including a high public wage bill, large subsidies, uneven regional development, significant informal sector participation, and high unemployment among educated youth.
• To ensure long-term energy security and address a persistent energy deficit, the report recommends diversifying energy sources by exploring geothermal energy and reconsidering nuclear energy for baseload supply, alongside existing solar and wind investments.
• The report suggests that Tunisia can reduce its dependence on the EU and diversify exports by fully implementing the AfCFTA and integrating more deeply into Mediterranean and African value chains.

APA

Ngundu, M. (2026). Tunisia: Conclusion and Recommendations. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TN&topic=05-conclusion

Chicago

Ngundu, Marvellous. Tunisia: Conclusion and Recommendations. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TN&topic=05-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ngundu |first1=Marvellous |title=Tunisia: Conclusion and Recommendations |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TN&topic=05-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ngundu2026tunisia, author = {Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{Tunisia: Conclusion and Recommendations}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TN&topic=05-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }