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Within-Country Income Inequality in Multi-decade Scenarios
The research argues that within-country income inequality is driven more by socio-political institutions and state ideology than by economic development or market forces. By integrating Chakravorty's qualitative model of state regimes (extractive, redistributive, and reinvestment) with the quantitative Selectorate theory, the author develops a model where the size of the 'winning coalition' and the bias toward redistribution versus reinvestment serve as primary predictors of the Gini coefficient. Empirical testing using data from 1970-1990 shows that the size of the winning coalition is a strongly significant predictor of inequality, while GDP per capita is not. The paper applies this model to 104 countries across three stylized 50-year global convergence scenarios, finding that redistributive regimes yield the lowest inequality and extractive regimes the highest.
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Document type: Research paper
SÄÄSTVA TRANSPORDI RAPORT
The report finds that Estonia's transport system is not developing sustainably, with car use and road freight growing in tandem with the economy, leading to high energy intensity and greenhouse gas emissions. While traffic fatalities have decreased significantly, urban air quality has suffered due to increased particulate matter from cars. The report compares Estonia's performance with EU averages and neighbors (Finland and Latvia), noting that Estonia has some of the least fuel-efficient new cars in Europe. Three scenarios for 2020 are analyzed: a 'BAAS' (baseline) scenario where trends continue, a 'TEHNO' scenario focusing on rapid vehicle efficiency gains, and an 'EFEKT' scenario focusing on mobility management and sustainable transport modes. The authors recommend a combination of both TEHNO and EFEKT measures, including CO2-based vehicle taxation, improved public transport and active mobility infrastructure, and integrated urban planning to decouple economic growth from transport demand.
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Document type: Report
A Policy for Improving Efficiency of Agriculture Pump sets in India: Drivers, Barriers and Indicators
The document argues that replacing approximately 16 million inefficient agricultural pump sets in India, combined with the adoption of High Voltage Distribution Systems (HVDS) and mandatory metering, can significantly reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. It identifies financing as the primary barrier, driven by high upfront costs of efficient pumps and flat electricity tariffs that remove incentives for conservation. The author proposes a phased policy approach moving from pump replacement to metered tariffs, suggesting that international cooperation is most effective for financial support and capacity building rather than technology transfer. The paper also provides a framework of indicators to monitor program initiation, pump deployment, and tariff reform.
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Document type: Research paper
Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions
The report argues that while climate change is not the sole cause of conflict, it acts as a 'threat multiplier' in the Levant. It identifies six primary security threats, including increased competition for water, intensified food insecurity, and destabilizing forced migration. The authors emphasize that the region's history of conflict and deep distrust undermine its adaptive capacity, making it more vulnerable to environmental shocks. To mitigate these risks, the report proposes four strategies: fostering a culture of conservation, implementing community-level adaptation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and enabling regional cooperation through shared resource management.
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Document type: Report
México: Estudio sobre la disminución de emisiones de carbono
The report provides a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of 40 low-carbon interventions in Mexico, focusing on electricity, oil and gas, end-use energy, transport, and agriculture and forestry. It argues that Mexico can stabilize its greenhouse gas emissions at 2008 levels by 2030 while maintaining economic growth, provided it overcomes institutional and regulatory barriers. The study highlights 'win-win' interventions with positive economic returns and significant co-benefits for public health and energy security.
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Document type: Report
Biofuels An Important Part of a Low-Carbon Diet
The Union of Concerned Scientists argues that while biofuels can reduce transportation emissions, their actual impact varies widely based on feedstock and production methods. The report advocates for 'well-to-wheel' life cycle analysis to prevent the adoption of high-carbon alternatives like liquid coal and to promote advanced cellulosic biofuels. It specifically highlights California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard as a model for federal policy to create market incentives for the lowest-carbon fuels while maintaining environmental safeguards.
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Document type: Report
Refinery of the Future
The document examines the transition of traditional refineries to low-carbon facilities across four regions, utilizing archetype refineries to model emissions reductions under the IEA's Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE). It identifies key decarbonization levers including carbon capture and storage (CCS), green and blue hydrogen, energy efficiency, and the conversion of facilities into biorefineries or clean fuels plants. Regional analysis reveals that while the US and GCC benefit from vast CO2 storage and cheap natural gas, Europe and Singapore face greater storage constraints but have stronger regulatory drivers and higher financial incentives for energy efficiency. The study emphasizes that the viability of these transitions depends on carbon pricing, feedstock availability, and the development of carbon clusters to achieve economies of scale.
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Document type: Executive summary
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options for Pakistan: Agriculture Sector
The agriculture sector in Pakistan contributed nearly 42 per cent of national greenhouse gas emissions in 2012. To address this, the document identifies twelve mitigation options, prioritizing five cost-effective measures: improving irrigation/water management, reducing methane from rice cultivation, implementing agroforestry, promoting better manure management, and limiting basmati rice crop burning. Together, these five priority measures are projected to reduce emissions by 11.83 MtCO2e by 2030, representing a 4.3 per cent reduction from the business-as-usual scenario.
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Document type: Fact sheet
CAPACITY CEILINGS IN EU FISHERIES: OBSTACLE OR OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DECARBONISATION PROCESS?
The report concludes that EU capacity ceilings are not a major obstacle to decarbonisation, as most Member States have available room to increase gross tonnage (GT) and kilowatt (kW) capacity. It proposes a stepwise transition: first improving energy efficiency (reducing fuel use by ~30%), then adopting hybrid solutions (potentially reducing emissions by 79% combined), and finally moving toward full decarbonisation using alternative fuels like methanol. The authors argue that decommissioning fuel-inefficient vessels to combat overfishing creates a 'win-win' by freeing up capacity for the energy transition.
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Document type: Report
¿CONSUMIMOS DEMASIADO? CÓMO UTILIZAMOS LOS RECURSOS NATURALES DEL PLANETA
The report analyzes the escalating extraction and consumption of natural resources, highlighting a stark divide between wealthy and poor regions. It argues that while resource efficiency has improved, absolute consumption continues to rise due to economic growth, a phenomenon termed the 'rebound effect'. The document emphasizes the environmental degradation and social injustices resulting from resource extraction in the Global South, and calls for a transition toward development models based on well-being rather than constant material growth.
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Document type: Report
Cultivating the future: Exploring the the potential and impact of a green revolution in Africa
The brief uses International Futures (IFs) software to model scenarios where Africa could become a net food exporter within 10 years through aggressive policy interventions. However, it warns that increasing production alone may lead to food exports benefiting rich countries while local hunger persists. To ensure human development, the authors argue that a green revolution must be coupled with programs to increase low-income consumption and improvements in water and sanitation to prevent diarrheal diseases from undermining health gains.
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Document type: Policy brief
ENERGY, ECONOMICS AND CLIMATE - AN EDITORIAL
This editorial by Amory B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute argues that the perceived inevitability of increased fossil fuel consumption is a flawed assumption. By applying engineering-economic analysis, the authors suggest that a 'least-cost energy strategy' focusing on energy efficiency and renewables can reduce fossil fuel reliance to nearly zero within half a century, effectively mitigating the CO2 problem through economic rationality rather than solely through climatic cost-benefit analyses.
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Document type: Report
Global Tracking Framework
The Global Tracking Framework establishes a baseline and monitoring system for the SE4ALL 2030 goals. While the world saw significant gains between 1990 and 2010, population and economic growth have diluted these impacts, making 'business as usual' insufficient. Achieving the goals will require an additional $600–800 billion in annual investment, bold policy shifts such as phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, and critical progress in 'high-impact' countries, particularly China and India.
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Document type: Executive summary
Malawi – Electrification Report
The report evaluates Malawi's progress toward clean cooking goals, highlighting a significant gap between current ownership and 2030 targets. It identifies affordability and low stove durability as primary barriers, estimating a $108.8M investment needed for the Compact scenario and $246.0M for the more ambitious IEP scenario. The IEP scenario envisions a total phase-out of fuelwood and charcoal by leveraging universal electrification for e-cooking and expanding biofuels. The report emphasizes the need for durable stoves, innovative financing, and regional strategies, particularly in the Northern region, to reduce health risks and gender-based time burdens associated with fuel collection.
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Document type: Report
idee_galapagos_2020-890b30cc0dd3bba3.pdf
The report analyzes the energy transition of the Galápagos Islands, focusing on the total elimination of fossil fuels by 2040. It evaluates four demand sectors—residential, commercial/public, land transport, and maritime transport—and proposes three levels of policy ambition (Low, Medium, and High). Key strategies include replacing LPG with induction stoves and solar water heaters, electrifying land transport, and implementing a mix of slow steaming, wind-assisted propulsion, and biofuels for the maritime fleet. On the supply side, the report models the transition to 100% renewable electricity using solar PV, wind, Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), and geothermal energy. It concludes that while technological substitutions are generally cost-effective, structural infrastructure changes in buildings are not. The report also highlights the role of national subsidies and proposes an 'Eco Tax' for tourists to fund the transition.
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Document type: Report
Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO
The report analyzes 40 low-carbon interventions in Mexico's electric power, oil and gas, energy end-use, transport, and agriculture and forestry sectors. It finds that implementing these measures could stabilize emissions at 2008 levels by 2030, avoiding approximately 477 Mt CO2e relative to a baseline scenario. Many of these interventions are 'no-regrets' options with positive economic returns, though their scale-up is hindered by institutional, regulatory, and financial barriers.
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Document type: Report
How to Implement Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Options
The document argues for prioritizing public transport in South African cities to reduce carbon emissions, which currently account for 25% of city emissions, and energy consumption, which accounts for 50%. It identifies barriers such as fragmented management, safety concerns, and apartheid-era urban planning. Proposed solutions include the creation of Transport Authorities, the implementation of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, and travel demand management strategies like congestion charging and high-occupancy vehicle lanes. A case study of Cape Town suggests that a 10% shift in commuters from private to public transport by 2020 could save 148 million gigajoules of energy and 9 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2024.
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Document type: Guide
EGYPT’S FUTURE ELECTRICITY PATHWAYS
The report '80 Gigawatts of Change' presents seven modeled scenarios for Egypt's electricity sector from 2015 to 2035. It compares a 'Business as Usual' (BAU) baseline against pathways focusing on decarbonization, energy independence, and decentralization. The analysis highlights that while centralized fossil-fuel-based models are cheaper in the short term, they risk 'carbon lock-in' and exacerbate energy access inequities. Conversely, decentralized and renewable-heavy pathways offer higher job creation and lower emissions but require significant initial investment and institutional reform. The report specifically warns against coal and nuclear power due to high water consumption, environmental risks, and low job creation relative to renewables.
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Document type: Report
Policy Brief: Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia
Barrancabermeja faces a high structural dependence on the hydrocarbon sector, particularly the Ecopetrol refinery, which creates fiscal and labor risks. While gasoline demand may remain stable until 2035, the document warns of a structural crisis thereafter. It recommends a 'very rapid transition' policy to accelerate economic reconversion into bio-industrial services using oil palm biomass, ecotourism, and the creation of a Free Trade Zone to ensure a just economic transition.
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Document type: Policy brief
EIPC Scenarios for Energy Futures
The document evaluates the EIPC's Carbon Reduction Scenario, which aims to reduce carbon emissions in the Eastern Interconnection by 42% below 2005 levels by 2030. Analysis by Synapse Energy Economics indicates that this scenario achieves these reductions with cumulative ratepayer costs through 2040 nearly identical to a 'Business-as-Usual' approach. The scenario relies on a combination of wind energy, energy efficiency, and expanded interregional transmission, specifically projecting 103 GW of new wind in MISO states to support the broader region. The report argues that regional cooperation and updated, lower costs for wind and solar make these targets highly achievable and potentially 30% cheaper than business-as-usual when carbon costs are valued uniformly.
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Document type: Fact sheet