Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO

The report analyzes 40 low-carbon interventions in Mexico's electric power, oil and gas, energy end-use, transport, and agriculture and forestry sectors. It finds that implementing these measures could stabilize emissions at 2008 levels by 2030, avoiding approximately 477 Mt CO2e relative to a baseline scenario. Many of these interventions are 'no-regrets' options with positive economic returns, though their scale-up is hindered by institutional, regulatory, and financial barriers.

• Under a baseline scenario, Mexico's total greenhouse gas emissions are projected to grow from 659 Mt CO2e in 2008 to 1,137 Mt CO2e by 2030.
• The implementation of 40 identified MEDEC interventions could reduce CO2e emissions by approximately 477 Mt by 2030 compared to the baseline, effectively stabilizing emissions at 2008 levels.
• Agriculture and forestry offer the highest cumulative emissions reduction potential, contributing 32% of the total reductions in the MEDEC scenario, followed by transport at 27%.
• A significant portion of the proposed mitigation is highly cost-effective; 82% of the total emissions reduction potential of MEDEC interventions costs $10/t CO2e or less.
• In the electric power sector, the baseline scenario predicts a 230% increase in CO2e emissions by 2030, driven by a shift toward coal and natural gas.
• The electric power sector could significantly reduce emissions by replacing fossil fuel capacity with wind, geothermal, biomass, and small hydro, reducing coal's share of generation from 31% to 6%.
• Road transport is the largest and fastest-growing source of emissions in Mexico, with road transport accounting for approximately 90% of the sector's CO2e emissions.
• Forestry interventions, particularly those reducing deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), account for 85% of the proposed mitigation in the agriculture and forestry sector.
• Energy end-use efficiency in the residential sector is hindered by electricity subsidies for middle- and high-income consumers, which discourage investment in efficient appliances.
• The total new investment required to achieve the MEDEC low-carbon scenario is estimated at $64.5 billion between 2009 and 2030, representing about 0.4% of Mexico's 2008 GDP.
• Macroeconomic modeling suggests that implementing MEDEC interventions could increase Mexico's overall GDP by up to 5% by 2030, with the greatest welfare gains accruing to the lowest income deciles.

APA

Johnson, T. M., Alatorre, C., Romo, Z., & Liu, F. (n.d.). Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_EN.pdf

Chicago

Johnson, Todd M., Claudio Alatorre, Zayra Romo, and Feng Liu. Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO. Stockholm Environment Institute, n.d. https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_EN.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Johnson |first1=Todd M. |last2=Alatorre |first2=Claudio |last3=Romo |first3=Zayra |last4=Liu |first4=Feng |title=Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |url=https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_EN.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{johnsonndlowcarbon, author = {Johnson, Todd M. and Alatorre, Claudio and Romo, Zayra and Liu, Feng}, title = {{Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_EN.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }