Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO

This report, titled "Low-Carbon Development for Mexico" (MEDEC), provides a comprehensive economic and technical analysis of options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Mexico through 2030. It evaluates 40 specific interventions across five sectors—electric power, oil and gas, energy end-use, transport, and agriculture and forestry—comparing a baseline scenario with a low-carbon alternative. The study finds that Mexico can stabilize its emissions at roughly 2008 levels while maintaining economic growth by implementing cost-effective, often "no-regrets" measures, many of which provide significant co-benefits in public health and energy security.

• Implementing 40 identified MEDEC interventions would reduce CO2e emissions by approximately 477 Mt by 2030 compared to the baseline scenario, effectively stabilizing emissions at 2008 levels despite projected increases in GDP and per capita income.
• Transport is the largest and fastest-growing source of emissions in Mexico, with road transport accounting for about 90% of the sector's CO2e. The MEDEC scenario targets a 27% reduction in cumulative emissions through urban densification, bus rapid transit (BRT), and improved vehicle efficiency.
• In the electric power sector, the baseline scenario predicts a 230% increase in CO2e emissions by 2030 (from 142 Mt to 322 Mt). The MEDEC scenario reduces this by replacing fossil fuel capacity with wind, geothermal, biomass, and small hydro, reducing the share of coal from 31% to 6%.
• Significant emissions reduction potential exists in the oil and gas sector, particularly through cogeneration at Pemex facilities, which could provide more than 6% of Mexico's current installed power capacity.
• The total new investment required to achieve the MEDEC low-carbon scenario is estimated at $64.5 billion between 2009 and 2030, averaging $3 billion per year, or approximately 0.4% of Mexico's 2008 GDP.
• A majority of the proposed interventions are highly cost-effective; 80% of the greenhouse gas reduction potential of the MEDEC interventions costs less than $10 per ton of CO2e.
• Macroeconomic modeling suggests that implementing the MEDEC interventions could increase Mexico's overall GDP by up to 5% by 2030, with the most significant welfare gains accruing to the lowest income deciles.
• Key barriers to implementation include high upfront investment costs, institutional gaps in the energy sector (specifically regarding Pemex and CFE), and a lack of coordination in urban land-use and transport planning.

APA

Johnson, T. M., Alatorre, C., Romo, Z., & Liu, F. (n.d.). Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_EN.pdf

Chicago

Johnson, Todd M., Claudio Alatorre, Zayra Romo, and Feng Liu. Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO. Stockholm Environment Institute, n.d. https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_EN.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Johnson |first1=Todd M. |last2=Alatorre |first2=Claudio |last3=Romo |first3=Zayra |last4=Liu |first4=Feng |title=Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |url=https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_EN.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{johnsonndlowcarbon, author = {Johnson, Todd M. and Alatorre, Claudio and Romo, Zayra and Liu, Feng}, title = {{Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_EN.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }