Refinery of the Future

The document examines the transition of traditional refineries to low-carbon facilities across four regions, utilizing archetype refineries to model emissions reductions under the IEA's Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE). It identifies key decarbonization levers including carbon capture and storage (CCS), green and blue hydrogen, energy efficiency, and the conversion of facilities into biorefineries or clean fuels plants. Regional analysis reveals that while the US and GCC benefit from vast CO2 storage and cheap natural gas, Europe and Singapore face greater storage constraints but have stronger regulatory drivers and higher financial incentives for energy efficiency. The study emphasizes that the viability of these transitions depends on carbon pricing, feedstock availability, and the development of carbon clusters to achieve economies of scale.

• Refineries can mitigate Scope 1 and 2 emissions through decarbonization technologies, operational changes, and renewable energy, while Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions can be addressed by converting facilities into biorefineries (using HVO or HEFA) or clean fuels and chemicals facilities (e-Fuels).
• In Europe, achieving APS objectives requires energy efficiency, electrification, and carbon capture on the FCC and CDU, with a break-even CO2 price of US$180/t. Meeting NZE objectives requires replacing grey hydrogen with green hydrogen imports and switching boilers and fired heaters to hydrogen or electricity.
• For US refineries, a centralized carbon capture approach for blue hydrogen production using a new blue ATR is the most financially viable strategy, becoming NPV positive with a 3-year payback at a 2050 CO2 price of US$250/t. However, decarbonizing Fluid Catalytic Crackers (FCCs) requires a higher 2050 CO2 price of US$260-$300/t to be NPV positive.
• Refineries in the GCC face significant financial barriers to energy efficiency and electrification due to the low cost of natural gas and the high efficiency of modern plants. Carbon capture for FCC and SMR emissions would require an ambitious CO2 price of US$340/t in 2030 and US$500/t in 2050 to be NPV positive.
• Singapore's refinery decarbonization via energy efficiency and electrification is financially viable under current CO2 price forecasts, with a payback period under 2 years. However, carbon capture for Resid FCC and off-gas equipment requires a break-even CO2 price of US$300/t-US$600/t and is hindered by limited geological storage.
• The availability of CO2 storage and natural gas creates a divide in decarbonization strategies: the US and GCC have high potential for blue hydrogen and CCS, whereas Europe and Singapore face storage limitations and higher costs for carbon transport or export.

APA

Bhasin, E., Wakim, G., & Lockwood, T. (n.d.). Refinery of the Future. Clean Air Task Force. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/31095016/refinery-of-the-future-executive-summary.pdf

Chicago

Bhasin, Erica, Ghassan Wakim, and Toby Lockwood. Refinery of the Future. Clean Air Task Force, n.d. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/31095016/refinery-of-the-future-executive-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bhasin |first1=Erica |last2=Wakim |first2=Ghassan |last3=Lockwood |first3=Toby |title=Refinery of the Future |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/31095016/refinery-of-the-future-executive-summary.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bhasinndrefinery, author = {Bhasin, Erica and Wakim, Ghassan and Lockwood, Toby}, title = {{Refinery of the Future}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/31095016/refinery-of-the-future-executive-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }