Policy Brief: Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia

This policy brief by Transforma analyzes the economic dependence of Barrancabermeja, Colombia, on the hydrocarbon sector, specifically the Ecopetrol refinery. Using an input-output model, the document evaluates the risks of the energy transition and proposes a diversification strategy focusing on agro-industry, bio-energy from oil palm, and ecotourism to avoid a structural crisis after 2035.

• Barrancabermeja exhibits a high structural dependence on hydrocarbons, which creates fiscal, productive, and labor risks. The municipality contributes 23.8% of the added value in Santander, with secondary activities accounting for 64.4% as of 2023. Fiscal dependence is evidenced by the fact that 90% of the industry and commerce tax (ICA) payments come from Ecopetrol and CENIT.
• The Barrancabermeja Refinery, operated by Ecopetrol, is the central axis of the local economy and the largest industrial complex of its kind in Colombia, supplying approximately 80% of the fuel demand for the country's interior.
• Simulations of energy transition scenarios indicate that while gasoline demand may remain stable until 2035 under 'slow' or 'fast' transitions, a 'very fast' transition—characterized by a 16% growth in demand and higher electric vehicle adoption—should be the basis for public policy to avoid a deep structural crisis in the following decade.
• The agricultural sector and tourism are identified as the primary drivers for economic diversification due to their labor-pull capacity. Specifically, a 1% increase in demand for the agricultural sector could generate over 14,000 jobs.
• A strategic reconversion opportunity exists in transforming the municipality into a bio-industrial services hub by utilizing residual biomass from oil palm. Barrancabermeja has 7,707 hectares of oil palm, representing 80.5% of its cultivated area in 2024, which can be used to produce firm energy, pellets for export, and biogas.
• The document recommends the creation of a 'Productive Reconversion Fund' using current royalties and the establishment of a Free Trade Zone (Zona Franca) to attract bio-economy investment. It also suggests using scaled tax exemptions for ICA and Property Tax (Predial) conditioned on the hiring and reconversion of local labor from vulnerable sectors.
• Ecotourism is proposed as a high-value diversification path, specifically through birdwatching (aviturismo) and integrated tourist corridors. The document notes that international birdwatchers may be willing to pay between 260 and 500 USD daily, highlighting the potential for significant rural community income.

APA

Ramírez, F., Saavedra, P., & Castro, K. (n.d.). Policy Brief: Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/260520-Barrancabermeja.pdf

Chicago

Ramírez, Fabián, Paola Saavedra, and Karem Castro. Policy Brief: Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia. Transforma, n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/260520-Barrancabermeja.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ramírez |first1=Fabián |last2=Saavedra |first2=Paola |last3=Castro |first3=Karem |title=Policy Brief: Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia |publisher=Transforma |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/260520-Barrancabermeja.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ramrezndpolicy, author = {Ramírez, Fabián and Saavedra, Paola and Castro, Karem}, title = {{Policy Brief: Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/260520-Barrancabermeja.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }