Policy Brief: Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia

Barrancabermeja faces a high structural dependence on the hydrocarbon sector, particularly the Ecopetrol refinery, which creates fiscal and labor risks. While gasoline demand may remain stable until 2035, the document warns of a structural crisis thereafter. It recommends a 'very rapid transition' policy to accelerate economic reconversion into bio-industrial services using oil palm biomass, ecotourism, and the creation of a Free Trade Zone to ensure a just economic transition.

• Barrancabermeja has a severe structural dependence on hydrocarbons, with the Ecopetrol refinery supplying approximately 80% of the country's internal fuel demand. This dependence is reflected fiscally, as 90% of the annual income from Ecopetrol and CENIT comes from the industry and commerce tax (ICA).
• Simulations of energy transition scenarios indicate that under 'slow' or 'rapid' transitions, gasoline demand remains stable until 2035, which may create a false sense of security. However, a 'very rapid' transition scenario—where gasoline demand growth is limited to 16% and 83% of vehicles sold by 2035 are low-emission—is recommended as the basis for public policy to avoid a post-2035 structural crisis.
• The agricultural sector possesses the highest potential for labor growth among diversification alternatives; a 1% increase in demand for the agricultural sector could generate over 14,000 jobs.
• There is a strategic opportunity to transform the municipality into a bio-industrial services hub by utilizing residual oil palm biomass. Barrancabermeja has 7,707 hectares of oil palm, representing 80.5% of its cultivated area as of 2024, which can be used for firm energy generation and the production of high-density biomass pellets.
• The tourism sector, currently dominated by oil-related business travel, can be diversified into ecotourism and birdwatching. The municipality has a base of 133 accommodation establishments and 211 active tourism service providers, with international birdwatchers potentially paying between 260 and 500 USD daily.
• To facilitate the transition, the document recommends establishing a 'Productive Reconversion Fund' using current royalties, creating a Free Trade Zone to export high-value products like biomass pellets, and implementing staggered ICA and property tax exemptions conditioned on the hiring of local workers from vulnerable sectors.

APA

Ramírez, F., Saavedra, P., & Castro, K. (n.d.). Policy Brief: Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/260520-Barrancabermeja.pdf

Chicago

Ramírez, Fabián, Paola Saavedra, and Karem Castro. Policy Brief: Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia. Transforma, n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/260520-Barrancabermeja.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ramírez |first1=Fabián |last2=Saavedra |first2=Paola |last3=Castro |first3=Karem |title=Policy Brief: Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia |publisher=Transforma |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/260520-Barrancabermeja.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ramrezndpolicy, author = {Ramírez, Fabián and Saavedra, Paola and Castro, Karem}, title = {{Policy Brief: Especial energía Ante escenarios de salida de plantas térmicas en Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/260520-Barrancabermeja.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }