México: Estudio sobre la disminución de emisiones de carbono

This report, titled 'México: Estudio sobre la disminución de emisiones de carbono (MEDEC)', provides a comprehensive economic and technical evaluation of low-carbon development options for Mexico. It identifies 40 specific interventions across five key sectors—electricity, oil and gas, end-use energy, transport, and agriculture and forestry—to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030. The study compares a 'baseline' scenario of continued fossil fuel reliance against a 'MEDEC' scenario, demonstrating that Mexico can stabilize its emissions at 2008 levels while maintaining economic growth through a combination of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and sustainable land management.

• The MEDEC scenario projects that implementing 40 identified interventions would reduce GHG emissions by approximately 477 Mt CO2e by 2030 compared to the baseline scenario, effectively stabilizing emissions at 2008 levels.
• The agricultural and forestry sector offers the highest potential for emission reductions, contributing 162 Mt of the total reduction, primarily through REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) and reforestation.
• In the electricity sector, the baseline scenario predicts a 230% increase in GHG emissions between 2008 and 2030 (from 142 MtCO2e to 322 MtCO2e), driven by increased use of coal and natural gas.
• The MEDEC scenario for electricity proposes replacing fossil fuel capacity with renewables, reducing coal's share of generation from 31% to 6%, while increasing wind (1.3% to 6.0%), geothermal (2% to 11%), and biomass (0.1% to 8.0%).
• High-priority transport interventions include urban densification, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, and vehicle efficiency standards, all of which show positive net economic benefits.
• In the oil and gas sector, Pemex has significant potential for cogeneration that could provide more than 6% of Mexico's current installed electrical capacity.
• End-use energy efficiency interventions, such as residential lighting and improved wood stoves, are characterized as 'win-win' because they offer positive economic returns regardless of climate considerations.
• The total new investment required to achieve the MEDEC scenario between 2009 and 2030 is approximately $64 billion, averaging $3 billion per year, or about 0.4% of Mexico's 2008 GDP.
• A macroeconomic model (CGE) suggests that implementing the MEDEC interventions would increase Mexico's overall GDP by 5.58% by 2030 compared to the baseline.
• The study identifies significant institutional and regulatory barriers, such as the CFE's failure to account for fossil fuel externalities in planning and the lack of contracting procedures for small-scale renewable producers.
• Pemex's high debt level—the highest of any oil company globally in 2007—is a major barrier to financing low-carbon infrastructure.
• 82% of the total emission reduction potential in the MEDEC scenario can be achieved at a cost of $10/t CO2e or less.
• The study emphasizes that many low-carbon options are already feasible as they have been implemented as pilot projects in Mexico or similar economies.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2009). México: Estudio sobre la disminución de emisiones de carbono. https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_ES.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. México: Estudio sobre la disminución de emisiones de carbono. 2009. https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_ES.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=México: Estudio sobre la disminución de emisiones de carbono |date=2009 |url=https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_ES.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2009mxico, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{México: Estudio sobre la disminución de emisiones de carbono}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2009}, url = {https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_ES.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }