Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions

The report argues that while climate change is not the sole cause of conflict, it acts as a 'threat multiplier' in the Levant. It identifies six primary security threats, including increased competition for water, intensified food insecurity, and destabilizing forced migration. The authors emphasize that the region's history of conflict and deep distrust undermine its adaptive capacity, making it more vulnerable to environmental shocks. To mitigate these risks, the report proposes four strategies: fostering a culture of conservation, implementing community-level adaptation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and enabling regional cooperation through shared resource management.

• Climate change is predicted to make the Levant hotter, drier, and less predictable, with summer temperatures expected to increase by 2.5 to 3.7°C and winter temperatures by 2.0 to 3.1°C by the middle of the century.
• Water scarcity is expected to worsen significantly; under moderate temperature increases, the Euphrates River could shrink by 30 per cent and the Jordan River by 80 per cent by the end of the century.
• The legacy of over 60 years of conflict reduces the region's adaptive capacity through the physical destruction of infrastructure, high military spending, and a deep-seated distrust that prevents cooperation on shared water and energy projects.
• Climate change may destabilize existing peace agreements and complicate new ones, as seen in the 1994 Jordan-Israel Peace Agreement, where drought in 1999 nearly caused Israel to renege on water delivery schedules, sparking protests in Amman.
• Falling agricultural yields and volatile global food prices could increase domestic pressure for the Palestinian Authority or Syria to secure the return of occupied lands to ensure food security.
• Environmental degradation and falling rural productivity are likely to accelerate forced migration to urban areas, potentially straining city services and increasing tensions with existing refugee populations.
• The perception of shrinking natural resources may lead to increased militarization, where control over water or land is viewed as a key dimension of national security, potentially leading to pre-emptive seizures of resources.
• Inaction by the international community and Israel on climate mitigation may reinforce Arab perceptions that Western nations are not 'good global citizens', exacerbating existing distrust.
• The report suggests that climate change could either be an obstacle to peace or a vehicle for rapprochement, depending on whether countries choose to cooperate on shared threats.

APA

Brown, O., & Crawford, A. (2009). Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/rising_temps_middle_east.pdf

Chicago

Brown, Oli, and Alec Crawford. Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/rising_temps_middle_east.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Brown |first1=Oli |last2=Crawford |first2=Alec |title=Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=2009 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/rising_temps_middle_east.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{brown2009rising, author = {Brown, Oli and Crawford, Alec}, title = {{Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/rising_temps_middle_east.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }