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102 results
ENERGIZING FINANCE: TAKING THE PULSE 2021
The report analyzes the finance gaps for universal electricity and clean cooking access in Ghana, Mozambique, and Vietnam. It finds that achieving universal Tier 1 electricity and Tier 4 clean cooking access across these three countries will cost between USD 38 billion and 48 billion. The study highlights significant affordability gaps for end-users and a lack of private sector finance, particularly for small and medium enterprises. It recommends a blend of grants, concessional debt, equity, and results-based financing (RBF), alongside regulatory reforms and gender-inclusive policies, to unlock private sector capacity and reach the most vulnerable populations.
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Document type: Report
China Energy Outlook
China is the world's largest primary energy consumer and energy-related CO2 emitter. While the country is on track to meet most 2020 targets from its 13th Five-Year Plan, energy-related CO2 emissions continued to grow through 2018, surpassing 10 GtCO2. The report's 'Continuous Improvement Scenario' projects that primary energy consumption will peak in 2029 at 5,400 Mtce and CO2 emissions will peak in 2025 at 10,930 MtCO2, subsequently declining to 5,010 MtCO2 by 2050. This outlook assumes the maximum adoption of commercially available energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, leading to a power system where non-fossil sources generate 89% of electricity by 2050.
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Document type: Report
CarbonShot: Federal Policy Options for Carbon Removal in the United States
The report outlines a comprehensive strategy for the United States to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 through a diversified portfolio of carbon removal pathways. It categorizes these into 'Staples' (tree restoration and direct air capture), 'No Regrets' (agricultural soil carbon management), 'Speculative Bets' (carbon mineralization and enhanced root crops), and 'Supplemental Pathways' (BECCS, wood waste preservation, and extended timber rotations). The authors argue that an 'all-of-the-above' approach is the most robust and cost-effective, potentially removing 20 GtCO2 cumulatively by 2050. Key recommendations include federal subsidies for tree restoration, an expanded 45Q tax credit for direct air capture, and a 10-million-acre farm innovation program. The report also emphasizes the need for a 'strong enabling environment,' including low-carbon energy, credible life-cycle assessments, and improved geological storage and monitoring infrastructure.
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Document type: Research paper
Rapport Drawdown
The 2020 Drawdown Report argues that the world can reach the Drawdown point by the mid-2040s if existing climate solutions are deployed with high ambition. The analysis categorizes 76 solutions into three primary areas: reducing emissions sources (electricity, food/agriculture, industry, transport, and buildings), strengthening natural carbon sinks (terrestrial, coastal, and oceanic), and improving society through health and education. The report emphasizes that these solutions are interconnected and that the net operational savings significantly outweigh the implementation costs, with estimated savings of 95.1–145.5 trillion USD against implementation costs of 22.5–28.4 trillion USD.
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Document type: Report
Policy lessons from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America and the Caribbean Project
The report analyzes technical and policy pathways for Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050-2070. It argues that current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are insufficiently ambitious and recommends a shift toward widespread electrification, zero-carbon electricity, and sustainable land-use management. The study highlights that while technical solutions exist, achieving these goals requires profound structural changes in energy and transport systems, as well as the development of Long-Term Strategies (LTS) to avoid stranded assets and ensure a just transition.
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Document type: Report
Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs
Reaching climate neutrality in Estonia by 2050 is technically possible and potentially profitable in the long term, requiring an estimated total investment of 17.3 billion EUR between 2021 and 2050. The strategy emphasizes accelerating energy efficiency in buildings, transport, and industry, alongside a transition to renewable energy and carbon sequestration in the LULUCF sector. While the first decade (2021-2030) will be investment-heavy, resulting in higher costs than revenues, subsequent decades are expected to see revenues outweigh costs. The transition will likely cause a modest negative impact on GDP (approximately 10%) and long-term employment in fossil-fuel sectors, particularly oil shale in Ida-Virumaa, but will create short-term construction and technology jobs.
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Document type: Report
Developing a roadmap to a flexible, low‐carbon Indian electricity system: interim findings
India can integrate 390GW of wind and solar generation by 2030 at a lower total system cost than its current trajectory by increasing the flexibility of electricity supply and demand. The report identifies four primary flexibility needs: operating reserves, ramping, daily balancing, and seasonal balancing, all of which will grow as renewable energy penetration increases. A 'balanced portfolio' combining demand-side management, energy storage, and powerplant flexibility is found to be the most cost-effective approach, reducing energy waste by 82% to 97%, total system costs by 5% to 8%, and carbon emissions by 8% to 12% compared to a thermal-only approach. Regional analysis reveals that states like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka will face acute seasonal and ramping challenges, while Uttar Pradesh could act as a flexibility exporter due to its industrial base. The report concludes that urgent action on data, market design, and infrastructure is required to unlock these flexibility resources.
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Document type: Report
Where Are Self-Driving Cars Taking Us?
The Union of Concerned Scientists and Fehr & Peers modeled the impact of automated vehicles (AVs) on the Washington, DC, region for 2040. The findings indicate that while AVs could increase job access if deployed as pooled shared services, they risk significantly increasing total driving and congestion. The report highlights that low-income neighborhoods and communities of color would face disproportionately higher levels of congested driving across all scenarios. To mitigate these risks and prevent increased global warming emissions, the authors recommend prioritizing pooled rides, investing in mass transit modernization, and ensuring a rapid transition to electric vehicles.
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Document type: Executive summary
Where Are Self-Driving Cars Taking Us?
The report analyzes the potential impacts of automated vehicles (AVs) on the Washington, DC, metro area, arguing that the best outcomes for equity and environment occur when AVs are electric, pooled, and integrated with robust mass transit. Without such policies, AVs could increase vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by up to 66%, exacerbate congestion in low-income neighborhoods, and undermine public transit.
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Document type: Report
ENERGIZING FINANCE: TAKING THE PULSE 2019
The report finds that Madagascar faces significant energy deficits, with grid expansion stagnating at 11.4% since 2010. To reach universal access by 2030, the document argues that a shift toward decentralized solar and mini-grids is essential, requiring a total investment of 2.3 billion dollars for off-grid electricity and improved cooking solutions. Key barriers include the low purchasing power of rural households, a lack of quality standards for solar products, and a heavy reliance on traditional biomass for cooking.
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Document type: Report
ENERGIZING FINANCE: TAKING THE PULSE 2019
Madagascar faces a significant energy access gap, with grid expansion stagnating and clean cooking adoption among the lowest in Africa. To reach SDG7 by 2030, the country requires approximately USD 2.4 billion in total financing for off-grid electricity and improved cooking solutions. While stand-alone solar is the primary driver for electrification, reaching 84.8% of households requires USD 1.8 billion, including USD 662 million to address affordability gaps. Mini-grids are projected to reach 1.4% of households with USD 92 million in financing. In the clean cooking sector, 99% of households lack clean solutions; achieving universal access via industrial improved cookstoves (ICS) requires USD 148 million for enterprises and USD 217 million for affordability gap financing.
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Document type: Case study
CEMENT’S ROLE IN A CARBON-NEUTRAL FUTURE
Cement production accounts for 5.6% of global CO2 emissions, split between thermal fuel combustion (30-40%) and limestone calcination process emissions (60-70%). The report highlights that concrete naturally re-absorbs CO2 through carbonation, sequestering roughly 48% of process emissions over several decades. To reach carbon neutrality by 2050, the author models scenarios suggesting that capturing 80% of process emissions is sufficient if electricity is decarbonized, or 53% if thermal fuels are also fully decarbonized. Mitigation strategies discussed include energy efficiency, clinker substitution (reducing clinker content to 60%), and novel technologies from CarbonCure and Solidia.
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Document type: Report
THE POTENTIAL OF AGRICULTURE AND LAND REFORM TO GENERATE NEW JOBS
The policy brief examines how South Africa can leverage agriculture and land reform for job creation. It highlights the current dominance of large-scale commercial farming and the failures of previous land reform efforts. The document proposes three scenarios for job growth, ranging from a modest 220,000 net jobs through commercial intensification to 1,263,000 net jobs if 60% of commercial farmland is redistributed to market-oriented smallholders. It concludes that while significant livelihood opportunities exist for smallholders, the potential for high-wage, secure employment in the sector is limited and depends heavily on state capacity and irrigation access.
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Document type: Policy brief
Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda
The document outlines three development pathways for Rwanda—reference, pessimistic, and optimistic—to explore the synergies and trade-offs between agricultural transformation and energy transition. It provides the specific quantitative inputs and qualitative assumptions used in the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) models, including GDP growth, population trends, land-use changes, and cookstove penetration rates.
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Document type: Report
STRENGTHENING CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN URBAN AMAZONIA
The document applies a Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus approach to analyze the Cumbaza watershed in Peru, highlighting how deforestation and climate change threaten urban and rural resource security. It quantifies 11 key WEF interactions and projects resource demands through 2050, emphasizing the critical role of forest ecosystem services in maintaining water quality and quantity for the region's growing population.
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Document type: Case study
Coal transitions in South Africa
The report argues that South Africa's coal sector is in a state of crisis due to rising costs, energy insecurity, and the increasing competitiveness of renewable energy. It models three pathways: a least-cost NDC-based scenario, a 2°C-consistent scenario, and a sensitivity analysis regarding Sasol's Secunda plant. The findings indicate that meeting a 2°C target requires the rapid retirement of coal-fired power plants, including Medupi and Kusile, and a shift toward wind and solar PV. While the transition offers benefits like cheaper electricity and improved air quality, it poses significant risks to employment in coal-mining regions, particularly Mpumalanga, necessitating a planned 'just transition' to support workers and diversify local economies.
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Document type: Report
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in Snow Leopard Habitat Central Tian Shan Region of the Kyrgyz Republic 2017
The report details the ecological and physical vulnerability of the Central Tian Shan in the Kyrgyz Republic. It finds a general trend of glacier retreat and shrinking lakes, which threatens the region's role as the 'water tower of Central Asia' and impacts hydropower security. Biodiversity is at risk, particularly the endangered snow leopard, due to habitat shifts and prey instability, although some species have expanded their range. Future scenarios project significant temperature increases and a long-term decrease in surface runoff by 2100. The document advocates for the expansion of protected areas and the implementation of climate-smart livelihoods, such as yak breeding and ecotourism, to build community and ecosystem resilience.
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Document type: Report
Economics of Climate Change Mitigation in Central and West Asia
The report analyzes GHG mitigation in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, finding that while these countries have high GHG intensity due to fossil fuel reliance, significant low-cost abatement is possible through energy efficiency and fuel switching. It proposes specific Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and investment concepts for each country to transition toward low-carbon growth.
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Document type: Report
Lühiajalise kliimamõjuga õhusaasteainete mõju hindamine
The report develops a methodology using the LEAP-IBC (Integrated Benefit Calculator) tool to assess the impact of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) in Estonia. Focusing on the residential and transport sectors, it compares 'Business As Usual' (BAU) and energy efficiency (EE) scenarios. Findings indicate that while BAU leads to a 4-6% increase in emissions by 2030, the EE scenario could reduce NOx, PM2.5, and black carbon emissions by 13-15%. The report emphasizes that the most significant health risks are driven by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and black carbon, and recommends strategic urban planning and building renovations to mitigate these risks.
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Document type: Report
United States Mid-Century Strategy FOR DEEP DECARBONIZATION
The United States Mid-Century Strategy (MCS) provides a roadmap for deep decarbonization by 2050, focusing on three primary pillars: transitioning to a low-carbon energy system, enhancing the land carbon sink, and reducing non-CO2 emissions. The strategy emphasizes a combination of aggressive energy efficiency, near-complete decarbonization of the electricity grid, and the deployment of carbon removal technologies like BECCS. It argues that these goals are compatible with robust economic growth and suggests that a carbon price starting at $20 per metric ton in 2017 could put energy CO2 emissions on a consistent pathway. The report also highlights the critical role of U.S. forests and soils in sequestering carbon and the necessity of international cooperation to drive down technology costs and prevent emissions leakage.
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Document type: Report