Where Are Self-Driving Cars Taking Us?

The report analyzes the potential impacts of automated vehicles (AVs) on the Washington, DC, metro area, arguing that the best outcomes for equity and environment occur when AVs are electric, pooled, and integrated with robust mass transit. Without such policies, AVs could increase vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by up to 66%, exacerbate congestion in low-income neighborhoods, and undermine public transit.

• AVs operated as part of higher-occupancy pooled fleets can more than double the number of jobs accessible via a 45-minute car trip, whereas non-pooled AVs lose 80 percent of this benefit due to increased congestion.
• The introduction of AVs is projected to increase total driving by 46 to 66 percent relative to a 2040 baseline without AVs, depending on whether pooling and transit investments are implemented.
• Low-income neighborhoods and communities of color face disproportionate impacts from AV deployment, experiencing 6 to 12 times as much congested driving as the projected 2040 regional average.
• Investments in a modernized transit system can double the number of jobs accessible by transit and reduce roadway congestion, ensuring residents maintain a choice between cars and mass transit.
• A transition to a 'transportation as a service' model using AVs could significantly lower costs for low-income households by removing the high fixed costs of car ownership, with projected costs potentially falling to 20-40 cents per mile.
• AVs may exacerbate the 'East-West divide' in the DC region because the root cause of disparate job accessibility is unevenly distributed opportunity rather than a lack of mobility.
• To prevent AVs from increasing global warming and local air pollution, a rapid transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is required, as AVs increase total vehicle miles traveled in all studied scenarios.

APA

Ezike, R., Martin, J., Catalano, K., & Cohn, J. (2019). Where Are Self-Driving Cars Taking Us? Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/02/Where-Are-Self-Driving-Cars-Taking-Us-web.pdf

Chicago

Ezike, Richard, Jeremy Martin, Katherine Catalano, and Jesse Cohn. Where Are Self-Driving Cars Taking Us? Union of Concerned Scientists, 2019. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/02/Where-Are-Self-Driving-Cars-Taking-Us-web.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ezike |first1=Richard |last2=Martin |first2=Jeremy |last3=Catalano |first3=Katherine |last4=Cohn |first4=Jesse |title=Where Are Self-Driving Cars Taking Us? |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=February 2019 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/02/Where-Are-Self-Driving-Cars-Taking-Us-web.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ezike2019where, author = {Ezike, Richard and Martin, Jeremy and Catalano, Katherine and Cohn, Jesse}, title = {{Where Are Self-Driving Cars Taking Us?}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2019}, month = feb, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/02/Where-Are-Self-Driving-Cars-Taking-Us-web.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }