China Energy Outlook

China is the world's largest primary energy consumer and energy-related CO2 emitter. While the country is on track to meet most 2020 targets from its 13th Five-Year Plan, energy-related CO2 emissions continued to grow through 2018, surpassing 10 GtCO2. The report's 'Continuous Improvement Scenario' projects that primary energy consumption will peak in 2029 at 5,400 Mtce and CO2 emissions will peak in 2025 at 10,930 MtCO2, subsequently declining to 5,010 MtCO2 by 2050. This outlook assumes the maximum adoption of commercially available energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, leading to a power system where non-fossil sources generate 89% of electricity by 2050.

• China is the global leader in both primary energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions, accounting for 21% of global primary energy use and approximately 29% of global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2018.
• The industrial sector is the dominant energy consumer in China, with its share of total primary energy use remaining relatively stable between 67% and 73% since 1980, settling at 70% from 2013 to 2018.
• China's energy structure is shifting toward electrification, with the share of electricity in total final energy use increasing from 19% in 2010 to 23% in 2017.
• The share of non-fossil energy in total primary energy consumption grew from 6.2% in 2000 to 12.3% in 2017, and reached 14.3% in 2018.
• China is generally on track to meet its 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) energy and CO2 goals, with the exception of the services sector's share of value added, which was 52.2% in 2018 against a target of 56%.
• Energy-related CO2 emissions surpassed 10 GtCO2 by the end of 2018, representing a 4% increase over 2015 levels.
• The 'Continuous Improvement Scenario' projects that China's primary energy consumption will peak in 2029 at 5,400 Mtce and decline to 3,960 Mtce by 2050.
• Under the 'Continuous Improvement Scenario', energy-related CO2 emissions are projected to peak in 2025 at 10,930 MtCO2 and fall to 5,010 MtCO2 by 2050.
• The 'Continuous Improvement Scenario' forecasts a fundamental shift in power generation, with non-fossil sources providing 89% of China's electricity by 2050, while coal capacity drops to just 2% of total installed capacity.
• The report identifies a diverse policy mix of 42 selected programs, where more than half are regulatory/administrative, while others are economic, informational, voluntary, or motivational.
• China's New Energy Vehicle (NEV) market grew at an average annual rate of 114% from 2011 to 2018, with NEVs accounting for nearly 6% of the passenger car market as of July 2019.
• The 'Continuous Improvement Scenario' projects that the industrial sector's primary energy use will peak by 2025, the buildings sector's by 2034, and the transport sector's by 2035.

APA

Zhou, N., Lu, H., Khanna, N., Liu, X., Fridley, D., Price, L., Shen, B., Feng, W., Lin, J., Szum, C., & Ding, C. (2020). China Energy Outlook. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/china_energy_outlook_2020.pdf

Chicago

Zhou, Nan, Hongyou Lu, Nina Khanna, Xu Liu, David Fridley, Lynn Price, Bo Shen, et al. China Energy Outlook. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2020. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/china_energy_outlook_2020.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{zhou2020china, author = {Zhou, Nan and Lu, Hongyou and Khanna, Nina and Liu, Xu and Fridley, David and Price, Lynn and Shen, Bo and Feng, Wei and Lin, Jiang and Szum, Carolyn and Ding, Chao}, title = {{China Energy Outlook}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2020}, month = apr, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/china_energy_outlook_2020.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }