Policy lessons from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America and the Caribbean Project

The report analyzes technical and policy pathways for Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050-2070. It argues that current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are insufficiently ambitious and recommends a shift toward widespread electrification, zero-carbon electricity, and sustainable land-use management. The study highlights that while technical solutions exist, achieving these goals requires profound structural changes in energy and transport systems, as well as the development of Long-Term Strategies (LTS) to avoid stranded assets and ensure a just transition.

• Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the region are generally insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals due to high 2025-2030 targets, a lack of sectoral detail, and an absence of goals beyond 2030.
• Achieving net-zero emissions is technically feasible in Latin America and relies on four primary strategies: producing zero-carbon electricity, widespread electrification (or switching to carbon-free fuels), increasing public and non-motorized transport, and preserving/regenerating natural carbon sinks.
• The transition to net-zero could generate significant economic benefits, including the potential for 15 million net jobs in the region by 2030 and improvements in air quality and urban congestion.
• Delayed action on decarbonization risks creating substantial stranded assets; in Latin America and the Caribbean, implementing current NDCs and correcting course after 2030 could result in USD 90 billion of stranded assets in the power sector.
• In Argentina, reaching Paris-compliant per capita emissions goals requires a focused effort on afforestation to offset emissions from the agricultural-livestock sector, as well as a potential hydro-nuclear program to support variable renewables.
• Colombia's decarbonization depends heavily on controlling deforestation and intensifying livestock production to free up land for biomass and food production without expanding into forests.
• Costa Rica serves as a model for land-use sinks, having increased forest cover from under 30% in the 1980s to nearly 60% today, with its primary remaining challenge being the decarbonization of transport.
• Ecuador's pathway to net-zero requires diversifying its electricity matrix beyond hydropower to include solar, wind, and biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to ensure firm power.
• Mexico's current energy policies, including investments in oil production and refining, may lock in emissions levels that are contrary to the Paris Agreement goals.
• Peru's decarbonization strategy focuses on the AFOLU and transport sectors, with a need for sustainable forest management, property rights allocation in the Amazon, and a mass shift toward electric public transport.

APA

C.Bataille (2020). Policy lessons from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America and the Caribbean Project. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/IDEE-2020-18.pdf

Chicago

C.Bataille. Policy lessons from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America and the Caribbean Project. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2020. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/IDEE-2020-18.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=C.Bataille |title=Policy lessons from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America and the Caribbean Project |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2020 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/IDEE-2020-18.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cbataille2020policy, author = {C.Bataille}, title = {{Policy lessons from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America and the Caribbean Project}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2020}, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/IDEE-2020-18.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }