Where Are Self-Driving Cars Taking Us?

The Union of Concerned Scientists and Fehr & Peers modeled the impact of automated vehicles (AVs) on the Washington, DC, region for 2040. The findings indicate that while AVs could increase job access if deployed as pooled shared services, they risk significantly increasing total driving and congestion. The report highlights that low-income neighborhoods and communities of color would face disproportionately higher levels of congested driving across all scenarios. To mitigate these risks and prevent increased global warming emissions, the authors recommend prioritizing pooled rides, investing in mass transit modernization, and ensuring a rapid transition to electric vehicles.

• The impact of AVs on job accessibility depends heavily on vehicle occupancy; pooled fleets could more than double the number of jobs reachable within a 45-minute car trip, whereas unpooled AVs could cause a loss of 80 percent of that benefit due to increased congestion.
• AVs are projected to increase total driving by up to 66 percent compared to a 2040 scenario without AVs, though this increase drops to 46 percent if policies encourage transit investment and pooling. Without a rapid shift to electric vehicles, this increase in driving will worsen global warming.
• Environmental justice is a significant concern, as low-income neighborhoods and communities of color experienced 6 to 12 times more congested driving than the regional average in all scenarios, with exposure approximately 50 percent higher than the region as a whole.
• Investments in mass transit are shown to reduce roadway congestion and double the number of jobs accessible via transit, maintaining a multimodal choice for residents.

APA

Ezike, R., Martin, J., Catalano, K., & Cohn, J. (2019). Where Are Self-Driving Cars Taking Us? Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/04/Where-Are-Self-Driving-Cars-Taking-Us-ES.pdf

Chicago

Ezike, Richard, Jeremy Martin, Katherine Catalano, and Jesse Cohn. Where Are Self-Driving Cars Taking Us? Union of Concerned Scientists, 2019. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/04/Where-Are-Self-Driving-Cars-Taking-Us-ES.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ezike |first1=Richard |last2=Martin |first2=Jeremy |last3=Catalano |first3=Katherine |last4=Cohn |first4=Jesse |title=Where Are Self-Driving Cars Taking Us? |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=February 2019 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/04/Where-Are-Self-Driving-Cars-Taking-Us-ES.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ezike2019where, author = {Ezike, Richard and Martin, Jeremy and Catalano, Katherine and Cohn, Jesse}, title = {{Where Are Self-Driving Cars Taking Us?}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2019}, month = feb, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/04/Where-Are-Self-Driving-Cars-Taking-Us-ES.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }