Coal transitions in South Africa

The report argues that South Africa's coal sector is in a state of crisis due to rising costs, energy insecurity, and the increasing competitiveness of renewable energy. It models three pathways: a least-cost NDC-based scenario, a 2°C-consistent scenario, and a sensitivity analysis regarding Sasol's Secunda plant. The findings indicate that meeting a 2°C target requires the rapid retirement of coal-fired power plants, including Medupi and Kusile, and a shift toward wind and solar PV. While the transition offers benefits like cheaper electricity and improved air quality, it poses significant risks to employment in coal-mining regions, particularly Mpumalanga, necessitating a planned 'just transition' to support workers and diversify local economies.

• The South African coal sector is currently experiencing a crisis characterized by increasing costs and energy insecurity, with coal becoming less competitive for electricity generation.
• Eskom's primary energy costs have risen by approximately 300% in real terms over the last 20 years, contributing to higher electricity prices and stagnating demand.
• In a least-cost energy pathway consistent with South Africa's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), wind and solar PV are projected to provide 71% of electricity by 2050, while coal production declines by 1.1% annually between 2017 and 2050.
• Achieving a 2°C-compatible transition would require the electricity sector's coal share to reach zero by 2040, necessitating the retirement of the Medupi and Kusile stations before that date.
• Under the 2°C scenario, solar PV and wind would generate 80.2% of electricity by 2050, and coal mining employment would drop to just below 30,000 jobs.
• The inclusion of new coal-fired power plants or the extension of existing plants' lives in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) would likely prevent South Africa from meeting the lower range of its NDC.
• Coal mining employment peaked in 1981 and has since declined due to mechanization; the workforce has also shifted toward higher-skilled roles, with semi- and unskilled workers decreasing from 70% in 1995 to 56% in 2015.
• The Mpumalanga region is highly vulnerable to the coal transition because it hosts over 80% of coal mining by volume and mining is the province's largest GDP contributor.
• Industrial demand for coal is projected to increase through 2050 in both the NDC and 2°C scenarios, potentially offsetting some of the employment losses caused by the phase-out of coal in the electricity sector.

APA

Burton, J., Caetano, T., & McCall, B. (2018). Coal transitions in South Africa. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_South-Africa_2018.pdf

Chicago

Burton, Jesse, Tara Caetano, and Bryce McCall. Coal transitions in South Africa. Climate Strategies, 2018. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_South-Africa_2018.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Burton |first1=Jesse |last2=Caetano |first2=Tara |last3=McCall |first3=Bryce |title=Coal transitions in South Africa |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2018 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_South-Africa_2018.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{burton2018coal, author = {Burton, Jesse and Caetano, Tara and McCall, Bryce}, title = {{Coal transitions in South Africa}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2018}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_South-Africa_2018.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }