Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs

This report analyzes the technical and economic feasibility of Estonia reaching climate neutrality (net-zero greenhouse gas emissions) by 2050. It identifies a suite of measures across energy, transport, industry, agriculture, and land use (LULUCF) to move from the current -80% reduction target to -100%. The analysis concludes that this goal is technically possible and potentially profitable in the long term, though it requires a significant acceleration of investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy.

• Achieving climate neutrality in Estonia by 2050 is technically feasible and potentially profitable in the long term, provided there are strategically wise investments across private, public, and non-profit sectors.
• The total estimated investment required to implement the analyzed measures between 2021 and 2050 is approximately 17.3 billion EUR, assuming 85% of the measures are fully implemented. This total is split between the private sector (approx. 13.1 billion EUR) and the public sector (approx. 4.2 billion EUR).
• The investment burden as a percentage of GDP is expected to decrease over time: approximately 4% in the first decade (2021-2030), 2% between 2031-2040, and less than 1% between 2041-2050.
• A critical prerequisite for climate neutrality is the LULUCF sector's ability to remove CO2 or the deployment of CCS/CCU technologies, as zero emissions are likely impossible in agriculture, transport, and industry. Without these, the oil shale sector cannot be part of the 2050 landscape.
• The report identifies the most impactful energy infrastructure targets for 2050: 677 MW of solar plants, 1300 MW of offshore wind, 500 MW of onshore wind, and 500 MW of pumped-hydro storage plants.
• Transport sector neutrality by 2050 requires a massive shift in the vehicle fleet: of approximately 700,000 vehicles in use, 500,000 should be electric, 100,000 hydrogen-powered, and the remainder using biofuels.
• In the LULUCF sector, achieving net-zero requires strategic forestry management, including reducing annual felling volumes to approximately 10 million cubic meters in the first two decades and 8 million cubic meters between 2040-2050.
• The most cost-effective immediate actions (2021-2030) include accelerating energy efficiency in buildings, transport, and industry, and transitioning electricity and heat generation to renewable sources.
• Socio-economic modeling indicates that while the first decade (2021-2030) will see costs outweigh revenues due to the investment phase, the overall long-term result is that revenues (savings) will exceed costs.

APA

Meeliste, S., Tammiste, L., Grünvald, O., Kirsimaa, K., Suik, K., & Org, M. (2019). Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/aruanne-net0-sysinik-2050-191010.pdf

Chicago

Meeliste, Siim, Lauri Tammiste, Olavi Grünvald, Kerli Kirsimaa, Karina Suik, and Madis Org. Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2019. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/aruanne-net0-sysinik-2050-191010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Meeliste |first1=Siim |last2=Tammiste |first2=Lauri |last3=Grünvald |first3=Olavi |last4=Kirsimaa |first4=Kerli |last5=Suik |first5=Karina |last6=Org |first6=Madis |title=Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=September 2019 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/aruanne-net0-sysinik-2050-191010.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{meeliste2019eesti, author = {Meeliste, Siim and Tammiste, Lauri and Grünvald, Olavi and Kirsimaa, Kerli and Suik, Karina and Org, Madis}, title = {{Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2019}, month = sep, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/aruanne-net0-sysinik-2050-191010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }