Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs

Reaching climate neutrality in Estonia by 2050 is technically possible and potentially profitable in the long term, requiring an estimated total investment of 17.3 billion EUR between 2021 and 2050. The strategy emphasizes accelerating energy efficiency in buildings, transport, and industry, alongside a transition to renewable energy and carbon sequestration in the LULUCF sector. While the first decade (2021-2030) will be investment-heavy, resulting in higher costs than revenues, subsequent decades are expected to see revenues outweigh costs. The transition will likely cause a modest negative impact on GDP (approximately 10%) and long-term employment in fossil-fuel sectors, particularly oil shale in Ida-Virumaa, but will create short-term construction and technology jobs.

• Achieving climate neutrality in Estonia by 2050 is technically feasible and potentially profitable over the long term if strategically wise investments are made across private, public, and non-profit sectors.
• The total estimated investment required for the analyzed measures from 2021 to 2050 is approximately 17.3 billion EUR, assuming 85% of the measures are fully implemented. This is split between the private sector (approx. 13.1 billion EUR) and the public sector (approx. 4.2 billion EUR).
• The investment burden as a percentage of GDP is expected to be highest in the first decade (approx. 4% for 2021-2030), decreasing to about 2% for 2031-2040, and falling to less than 1% for 2041-2050.
• The energy sector's transition to carbon-free electricity by 2050 involves significant capacities, including 1300 MW of offshore wind, 500 MW of onshore wind, 677 MW of solar plants, and 500 MW of pumped-hydro storage.
• Transport sector neutrality by 2050 requires a massive shift in the vehicle fleet; of approximately 700,000 vehicles in use, about 500,000 should be electric and 100,000 should be hydrogen-powered.
• The LULUCF sector is essential for balancing remaining emissions, with afforestation and the conversion of peat soils to natural grasslands potentially removing approximately 1.6 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
• The transition is expected to have a predominantly negative impact on GDP (approximately 10%), largely due to the decline of the oil shale energy sector and reduced tax revenues (specifically excise duties) from the transport sector.
• While the first decade of the 2021-2050 period will see costs outweigh revenues due to the investment phase, the overall long-term result is that revenues (savings) will exceed costs.
• The construction of additional oil shale production and refining plants is viewed as a high risk that could prevent Estonia from reaching climate neutrality due to additional emissions and regulatory risks.

APA

Meeliste, S., Tammiste, L., Grünvald, O., Kirsimaa, K., Suik, K., & Org, M. (2019). Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/aruanne-net0-sysinik-2050-191010.pdf

Chicago

Meeliste, Siim, Lauri Tammiste, Olavi Grünvald, Kerli Kirsimaa, Karina Suik, and Madis Org. Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2019. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/aruanne-net0-sysinik-2050-191010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Meeliste |first1=Siim |last2=Tammiste |first2=Lauri |last3=Grünvald |first3=Olavi |last4=Kirsimaa |first4=Kerli |last5=Suik |first5=Karina |last6=Org |first6=Madis |title=Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=September 2019 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/aruanne-net0-sysinik-2050-191010.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{meeliste2019eesti, author = {Meeliste, Siim and Tammiste, Lauri and Grünvald, Olavi and Kirsimaa, Kerli and Suik, Karina and Org, Madis}, title = {{Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2019}, month = sep, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/aruanne-net0-sysinik-2050-191010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }