CarbonShot: Federal Policy Options for Carbon Removal in the United States

The report outlines a comprehensive strategy for the United States to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 through a diversified portfolio of carbon removal pathways. It categorizes these into 'Staples' (tree restoration and direct air capture), 'No Regrets' (agricultural soil carbon management), 'Speculative Bets' (carbon mineralization and enhanced root crops), and 'Supplemental Pathways' (BECCS, wood waste preservation, and extended timber rotations). The authors argue that an 'all-of-the-above' approach is the most robust and cost-effective, potentially removing 20 GtCO2 cumulatively by 2050. Key recommendations include federal subsidies for tree restoration, an expanded 45Q tax credit for direct air capture, and a 10-million-acre farm innovation program. The report also emphasizes the need for a 'strong enabling environment,' including low-carbon energy, credible life-cycle assessments, and improved geological storage and monitoring infrastructure.

• The United States requires large-scale carbon removal to reach carbon neutrality by midcentury, with an illustrative target of 2 GtCO2 per year by 2050, which is roughly equivalent to the emissions left unabated in the U.S. Mid-century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization.
• Tree restoration is identified as a 'Staple' pathway with the highest cumulative removal potential, capable of removing 180360 MtCO2 per year on average (upper bound of 540 MtCO2) and providing over 7 GtCO2 in cumulative removals by 2050.
• Full-scale implementation of tree restoration would require an estimated $44.5 billion in annual federal funding over 20 years, though an initial investment of $12 billion per year could capture 'low-hanging fruit' opportunities.
• Direct air capture (DAC) is a critical 'Staple' for long-term goals, with a plausible removal range of 1901,400 MtCO2 per year by 2050, though it is unlikely to provide meaningful removals until after 2030.
• Scaling DAC requires a federal technology development program costing $150 million per year over 10 years, alongside an expanded 45Q tax credit that increases the credit value to $180 per ton.
• Agricultural soil carbon management is a 'No Regrets' pathway that could plausibly remove 100200 MtCO2 per year by 2050. A proposed 10-million-acre farm innovation program would require $500 million annually over 10 years.
• Carbon mineralization is a 'Speculative Bet' with a theoretical upper bound of 1.2 GtCO2 per year, but a plausible 2050 estimate of negligible to 410 MtCO2 per year based on a one-third market share of synthetic aggregate.
• Enhanced root crops are 'Speculative Bets' with a theoretical potential of up to 500 MtCO2 per year, though plausible 2050 removals are estimated at 0185 MtCO2 per year. An RD&D budget of $4050 million per year is recommended.
• Supplemental pathways, including BECCS (up to 180 MtCO2/year), wood waste preservation (up to 90 MtCO2/year), and extended timber rotations (up to 25 MtCO2/year), provide modest but meaningful contributions to a diversified portfolio.
• An 'all-of-the-above' portfolio is the most robust and least-cost strategy, yielding the highest cumulative removals (20 GtCO2) by 2050 and reducing the risk that any single pathway fails to scale.
• A strong enabling environment is essential and includes the need for low-cost carbon-neutral energy, credible life-cycle assessments, and an expanded CO2 pipeline network.
• Geological storage in the U.S. has a technical capacity of at least 3,000 Gt, with deep saline aquifers offering the most significant potential (1,600 to 20,000 GtCO2).

APA

Mulligan, J., Rudee, A., Lebling, K., Levin, K., Anderson, J., & Christensen, B. (2020). CarbonShot: Federal Policy Options for Carbon Removal in the United States. World Resources Institute. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/carbonshot-federal-policy-options-for-carbon-removal-in-the-united-states_0.pdf

Chicago

Mulligan, James, Alexander Rudee, Katie Lebling, Kelly Levin, James Anderson, and Ben Christensen. CarbonShot: Federal Policy Options for Carbon Removal in the United States. World Resources Institute, 2020. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/carbonshot-federal-policy-options-for-carbon-removal-in-the-united-states_0.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mulligan |first1=James |last2=Rudee |first2=Alexander |last3=Lebling |first3=Katie |last4=Levin |first4=Kelly |last5=Anderson |first5=James |last6=Christensen |first6=Ben |title=CarbonShot: Federal Policy Options for Carbon Removal in the United States |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=January 2020 |url=https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/carbonshot-federal-policy-options-for-carbon-removal-in-the-united-states_0.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mulligan2020carbonshot, author = {Mulligan, James and Rudee, Alexander and Lebling, Katie and Levin, Kelly and Anderson, James and Christensen, Ben}, title = {{CarbonShot: Federal Policy Options for Carbon Removal in the United States}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2020}, month = jan, url = {https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/carbonshot-federal-policy-options-for-carbon-removal-in-the-united-states_0.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }