Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in Snow Leopard Habitat Central Tian Shan Region of the Kyrgyz Republic 2017

The report details the ecological and physical vulnerability of the Central Tian Shan in the Kyrgyz Republic. It finds a general trend of glacier retreat and shrinking lakes, which threatens the region's role as the 'water tower of Central Asia' and impacts hydropower security. Biodiversity is at risk, particularly the endangered snow leopard, due to habitat shifts and prey instability, although some species have expanded their range. Future scenarios project significant temperature increases and a long-term decrease in surface runoff by 2100. The document advocates for the expansion of protected areas and the implementation of climate-smart livelihoods, such as yak breeding and ecotourism, to build community and ecosystem resilience.

• The Central Tian Shan region is characterized by high biodiversity and vertical zonation of vegetation, supporting rare and endemic species including the endangered snow leopard (Panthera uncia).
• Climate change is altering species distribution in the region; while some endangered species face habitat degradation, others, such as polecats, wild boar, and jackals, have been recorded increasing in number or appearing in new areas.
• Glaciers in the Kyrgyz Republic, which cover 4.2 percent of the national territory, are generally in retreat due to warming trends, though rates vary by slope exposure and glacier size.
• In the Saryjaz River basin, glaciers decreased in area by 3.7 ± 2.7 percent between 1990 and 2010, with the most intense melting occurring in the northern and western sectors.
• Future climate projections for the Kyrgyz Central Tian Shan (2011-2070) indicate an annual mean temperature increase of 0.9°C to 1.5°C in the first period and 1.9°C to 3.2°C in the second.
• Surface runoff is projected to increase until approximately 2020–2025 due to glacial melt, followed by a sharp decline, with a predicted decrease of 43.6–88.4 percent by 2100 compared to 2000 levels.
• Climate change is expected to negatively impact human health in the Kyrgyz Republic, with projected increases in acute intestinal infections and cardiovascular disease mortality by 2100.
• The region is highly susceptible to climate-related emergencies; between 2007 and 2011, mudflows, landslides, and avalanches were among the most frequent natural hazards.
• The WWF Asia High Mountains Project is implementing adaptation measures to reduce grazing pressure and provide alternative incomes, including yak breeding, felt handicraft production, and ecotourism.
• The establishment and expansion of protected areas (PAs), such as the Sarychat-Ertash State Reserve and the Khan Tengri National Nature Park, are identified as critical adaptation tools for biodiversity conservation.

APA

Balbakova, F., Alamanov, A., Lipka, O., & Pereladova, O. (2017). Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in Snow Leopard Habitat Central Tian Shan Region of the Kyrgyz Republic 2017. WWF International. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/91/7fw9zpus8w_AHM_Kyrgyzstan_Climate_Vulnerability_Assessment_WEB_Final.pdf

Chicago

Balbakova, Farida, Azat Alamanov, Oksana Lipka, and Olga Pereladova. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in Snow Leopard Habitat Central Tian Shan Region of the Kyrgyz Republic 2017. WWF International, 2017. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/91/7fw9zpus8w_AHM_Kyrgyzstan_Climate_Vulnerability_Assessment_WEB_Final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Balbakova |first1=Farida |last2=Alamanov |first2=Azat |last3=Lipka |first3=Oksana |last4=Pereladova |first4=Olga |title=Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in Snow Leopard Habitat Central Tian Shan Region of the Kyrgyz Republic 2017 |publisher=WWF International |date=November 2017 |url=https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/91/7fw9zpus8w_AHM_Kyrgyzstan_Climate_Vulnerability_Assessment_WEB_Final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{balbakova2017climate, author = {Balbakova, Farida and Alamanov, Azat and Lipka, Oksana and Pereladova, Olga}, title = {{Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in Snow Leopard Habitat Central Tian Shan Region of the Kyrgyz Republic 2017}}, institution = {WWF International}, year = {2017}, month = nov, url = {https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/91/7fw9zpus8w_AHM_Kyrgyzstan_Climate_Vulnerability_Assessment_WEB_Final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }