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Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043
This background note provides energy production and demand forecasts for Africa and the global community up to 2043, based on the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform. It details the transition of energy sources, the growth of African energy demand driven by population increases, and the status of fossil fuel reserves and renewable energy projects across the continent.
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Document type: Report
Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043
This briefing note by the Institute for Security Studies examines the outlook for natural gas in Africa up to 2043, highlighting the tension between significant proven reserves and a global market facing slowing demand and potential supply gluts.
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Document type: Briefing
Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043
This background note from the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Africa's energy export and import trends under a 'Current Path' forecast up to 2043, highlighting the contrast between a few major energy exporters and a majority of countries dependent on imports.
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Document type: Report
Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043
This briefing note examines the current state and projected future of hydropower in Africa up to 2043. It highlights the gap between the continent's vast untapped potential and its current installed capacity, while detailing specific large-scale projects in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and the DR Congo.
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Document type: Briefing
Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043
This background note from the Institute for Security Studies projects that Africa, following its current development trajectory, will eventually become the primary global source of carbon emissions from fossil fuels, surpassing the emissions of the EU, USA, India, and China by 2061.
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Document type: Report
Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043
This background note provides historical data and forecasts for global and African energy demand and production up to 2043, highlighting the role of population growth in driving energy needs and the slow transition away from fossil fuels.
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Document type: Report
Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040
This special report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the intersection of agriculture, water access, and climate change in Algeria, forecasting development pathways to 2040. It highlights the country's vulnerability to commodity shocks, low agricultural productivity, and the severe socio-economic risks posed by rising temperatures and sea-level rise.
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Document type: Report
Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040
This report outlines the projected outcomes of the 'Algerian Dream' scenario for Algeria by 2040, a simulation where holistic reforms in governance, economic diversification, and policy interventions lead to significant growth compared to a 'Current Path' projection.
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Document type: Report
Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040
This report analyses the development trajectories of the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan) up to 2040. It identifies systemic barriers including governance failure, conflict, and climate-induced food insecurity, while modelling an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario to demonstrate how coordinated reforms in governance, agriculture, and human capital could significantly reduce extreme poverty and boost regional GDP.
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Document type: Report
Development pathways for the DRC to 2050
This report analyzes the human and economic development prospects of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) up to 2050. It contrasts a 'Current Path' scenario, characterized by persistent poverty, poor governance, and infrastructure deficits, with a 'comprehensive scenario' involving targeted interventions in governance, infrastructure, human capital, agriculture, and economic diversification.
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Document type: Report
Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040
This special report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes poverty and income inequality in the Horn of Africa, forecasting trends through 2040. It highlights significant disparities in multidimensional and monetary poverty across the region, the impact of conflict and governance on economic stability, and the role of income inequality in poverty reduction.
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Document type: Report
Development pathways for the DRC to 2050
This report examines the agricultural potential and challenges of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) leading up to 2050, highlighting a significant gap between the country's vast arable land and its current food insecurity and import dependence.
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Document type: Report
The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040
This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Tunisia's development trajectory toward 2040. It examines the country's current economic stagnation, demographic shifts, and vulnerabilities to climate change, while proposing three alternative policy pathways—Going for Growth, Leapfrogging, and Sustainability & Equality—to unlock the nation's human capital and improve governance.
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Document type: Report
Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040
This report section analyzes the health trajectory of Algeria leading up to 2040, highlighting a transition from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and the challenges of an ageing population.
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Document type: Report
The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040
This special report from the Institute for Security Studies examines poverty, inequality, and the role of government subsidies in Tunisia's development pathways toward 2040. It highlights a projected increase in poverty through 2030, significant disparities in rural areas and among children, and the fiscal instability caused by inefficient energy subsidies.
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Document type: Report
The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040
This special report from the Institute for Security Studies examines the agricultural sector and climate change vulnerabilities in Tunisia, highlighting low crop yields, high food dependence, and the projected economic and environmental impacts of rising temperatures and sea levels through 2040 and 2050.
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Document type: Report
European Electricity Review 2023
The European Electricity Review 2023 by Ember analyzes EU-27 electricity generation and demand for 2022, highlighting a year of crisis-driven volatility. While a shortfall in nuclear and hydro generation led to a temporary 7% increase in coal power, wind and solar reached a record 22% share of the EU electricity mix. The report predicts a significant decline in fossil fuel generation for 2023 as nuclear and hydro capacities recover and renewable deployment accelerates.
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Document type: Report
Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)
This document describes the approach and methodology used for a special report titled "Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)". It outlines the use of the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to model three scenarios against a pre-pandemic baseline, focusing on economic growth, poverty, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets through 2030.
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Document type: Report
Global access to cooling gaps and 2030 forecast
This document is a chapter from the 'Chilling Prospects 2022' report by Sustainable Energy for All, which analyzes global gaps in access to cooling and provides forecasts for 2030 based on Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) scenarios.
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Document type: Report
Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040
This conclusion section of a special report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the economic and political challenges facing Algeria. It argues that the country requires a comprehensive overhaul of its governance and economic structures—specifically moving away from hydrocarbon dependence and improving human capital utilization—to achieve inclusive development and growth by 2040.
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Document type: Report