Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040

The report highlights severe education deficits in the Horn of Africa, where conflict, gender inequality, and poor infrastructure hinder progress. It projects that by 2040, average years of education for adults will remain significantly lower than both the African and global averages, with primary school enrolment acting as a critical bottleneck for most countries except Ethiopia.

• The Horn of Africa region suffers from some of the lowest educational attainments globally, with over 63 million adults aged 15 and older lacking primary education as of 2020. Literacy rates have fluctuated, averaging 56.5% in 2018 and estimated to have dropped to 53.7% in 2020.
• Projections indicate that by 2040, the average years of education for adults aged 15+ in the region will be approximately 5.7 years. This figure is 1.6 years (nearly 30%) lower than the African average and 4.1 years (72%) lower than the average for the rest of the world.
• Except for Ethiopia, which has shown substantial progress, the other five countries in the Horn face a primary enrolment bottleneck. This lack of initial entry into the school system severely limits the pool of students available for secondary and tertiary education.
• Gender disparities significantly impact educational outcomes, with females having fewer average years of schooling (3.3 years) compared to males (4 years) based on 2015 data. Factors contributing to this gap include stereotyped gender roles, early marriage, domestic chores, and security concerns regarding long travel distances to schools.
• Educational access is further obstructed by recurrent droughts, conflicts, the pastoralist lifestyle of some communities, and the recruitment of children from schools into armed forces.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=08-education

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=08-education.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=08-education |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=08-education}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }