Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040

This report analyzes education trends and prospects in the Horn of Africa through 2040, highlighting systemic barriers to enrollment, significant gender disparities, and the long-term impact of conflict and instability on educational attainment.

• The Horn of Africa countries experience some of the world's lowest educational attainments and highest rates of education exclusion. In 2020, over 63 million adults aged 15 and older had either no education or had not completed primary education. The average literacy rate, which reached 61% in 2000, was estimated to have declined to approximately 53.7% by 2020.
• Educational attainment for adults aged 15 and over is projected to remain low through 2040. Based on 2015 data, the average period of education was 3.7 years (4 years for males and 3.3 years for females). By 2040, this average is expected to reach only 5.7 years, which is 72% (4.1 years) lower than the average for the rest of the world and nearly 30% (1.6 years) lower than the African average.
• Except for Ethiopia, which has made substantial progress, the countries in the Horn face a bottleneck at the primary enrollment stage. This lack of initial entry limits the pool of students available for secondary and tertiary education. Factors impeding the education environment include poor infrastructure, lack of water and sanitation, violence, outdated curricula, and a shortage of skilled teaching staff.
• Gender imbalances significantly hinder female educational outcomes. Girls are more likely to drop out as they age due to stereotyped gender roles, marriage, and domestic responsibilities. Additionally, long distances to schools disproportionately affect girls, who may feel insecure traveling alone and bear a heavier burden of household chores.
• Various systemic and external crises disrupt education in the region. These include the 1962 annexation of Eritrea by Ethiopia and subsequent armed struggle, recurrent droughts, conflicts, and the pastoralist lifestyle of certain communities. Furthermore, children are sometimes recruited from schools into armed forces to fight on front lines.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=08-education

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=08-education.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=08-education |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=08-education}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }