Tracking progress towards a global tripling of renewables

This report by Ember analyzes the progress toward the COP28 goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity to 11 TW by 2030. While rapid deployment between 2023 and 2025 has reduced the required annual growth rate for subsequent years, IEA forecasts suggest a potential shortfall by 2030, primarily driven by wind and hydro capacity gaps and policy changes in the US and China.

• At COP28, 133 countries pledged to triple global renewable energy capacity to at least 11 TW by 2030, a target aligned with 1.5C pathway models from IRENA and the IEA. However, the IEA's 2024 World Energy Outlook updated this requirement to 11.5 TW to account for increasing electricity demand and the specific mix of solar and wind deployment.
• Rapid growth in renewables from 2023 to 2025 has put the world ahead of the trajectory needed for a tripling. While a 21% annual increase in additions was originally required from 2023 to 2030, actual additions averaged 29% annually during 2023-2025. Consequently, the required annual growth rate for additions from 2026 to 2030 has dropped to 12%.
• The IEA's Renewables 2025 report suggests the tripling goal may not be met, citing policy changes in China and the US as primary drivers for slowdowns. The IEA's main case forecasts a total capacity of 9,530 GW by 2030, representing a 15% shortfall from the 11 TW target. Even the IEA's accelerated case forecasts a shortfall, reaching only 10,400 GW by 2030.
• The projected shortfall in capacity is largely attributed to wind and hydro, whereas solar remains on track for the levels required for a global tripling. In the IEA's main case, wind shows a shortfall of 739 GW and hydro a shortfall of 176 GW. Because wind and hydro generate more electricity per unit of capacity than solar, the resulting shortfall in electricity generation is larger than the capacity shortfall.

APA

Ember (2025). Tracking progress towards a global tripling of renewables. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/tracking-progress-towards-a-global-tripling-of-renewables/

Chicago

Ember. Tracking progress towards a global tripling of renewables. 2025. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/tracking-progress-towards-a-global-tripling-of-renewables/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Tracking progress towards a global tripling of renewables |date=6 November 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/chapter/tracking-progress-towards-a-global-tripling-of-renewables/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2025tracking, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Tracking progress towards a global tripling of renewables}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://ember-energy.org/chapter/tracking-progress-towards-a-global-tripling-of-renewables/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }