The Big Picture

The report highlights solar power as the primary engine of the global energy transition, noting it surpassed 2,000 TWh of generation in 2024 and doubles every three years. While emerging drivers such as data centres, EVs, and heat pumps have structurally increased electricity demand, clean generation is projected to grow fast enough to meet this demand and drive a structural decline in fossil fuels by 2030. Central to this shift is the progress in China and India, where clean power deployment is breaking the historical link between economic growth and fossil fuel expansion, potentially tipping the global balance toward a decline in fossil generation.

• Solar power has become the fastest-growing source of new electricity generation, doubling every three years and surpassing 2,000 TWh of global generation in 2024. This growth is significantly reducing the need for fossil fuels; without solar's 2,131 TWh contribution, global fossil generation would be 12% higher.
• The global solar market is shifting toward non-OECD countries, which accounted for 58% of global solar generation in 2024, with China alone contributing 39%. New markets are emerging rapidly due to low costs, such as Pakistan, which imported 17 GW of solar panels in 2024.
• Battery storage costs are falling rapidly, with lithium-ion battery pack prices dropping 20% in 2024 to $115 USD/kWh. This enables higher solar integration, as seen in California where batteries met nearly a fifth of daily peak load in evening hours in 2024.
• Electricity demand growth has structurally increased to 3.3% in 2023 and 2024, driven by EVs, heat pumps, and data centres, which together added 0.7% to global demand in 2024. Data centre and cryptocurrency mining demand specifically increased by 20% (+111 TWh) in 2024.
• Clean generation is projected to grow at an average rate of 9% per year through 2030, which is expected to exceed the IEA's forecasted demand growth of 3.3% to 3.7%. This suggests fossil generation will enter a structural decline over the decade.
• China is nearing a turning point where clean electricity meets all structural demand growth; in 2024, clean additions met 81% of its demand growth. 2025 may mark the first decline in China's fossil generation since 2015.
• India is rapidly expanding its clean capacity, with 143 GW of wind and solar under construction as of January 2025. While India still relies on fossil fuels for two-thirds of its demand growth, it could meet all new demand growth with clean electricity by 2030.

APA

Ember (2025). The Big Picture. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-big-picture-2/

Chicago

Ember. The Big Picture. 2025. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-big-picture-2/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=The Big Picture |date=8 April 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-big-picture-2/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2025big, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{The Big Picture}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-big-picture-2/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }