The Big Picture

The report analyzes three mega-trends shaping the global electricity transition: the exponential growth of solar power and battery storage, structurally higher electricity demand driven by electrification and data centers, and the decoupling of electricity demand from fossil fuel growth in China and India.

• Solar power has become the primary driver of the global energy transition, with generation doubling every three years. In 2024, global solar generation surpassed 2,000 TWh, marking the largest increase from any power source that year. This growth is global, with 99 countries doubling their solar electricity production over the last five years, and non-OECD economies now accounting for 58% of global solar generation.
• The cost of lithium-ion battery packs fell by 20% in 2024 to $115 USD/kWh, the largest percentage reduction since 2017. This cost decline is enabling the integration of higher shares of solar power and the emergence of 24-hour solar PV projects, such as a 1 GW baseload project in Abu Dhabi planned for 2027.
• Global electricity demand growth has structurally increased to 3.3% in 2023 and 2024, up from a previous decade average of 2.5%. This is driven by EVs, heat pumps, and data centers, which collectively added 0.7% to global demand in 2024. Specifically, EV demand grew by 38% (+62 TWh) and data center/crypto mining demand increased by 20% (+111 TWh) in 2024.
• Clean generation is projected to grow at an average rate of 9% per year through 2030, which is expected to be sufficient to meet demand growth forecasts of 3.3% to 3.7% annually. This suggests a structural decline in fossil generation over the decade, although short-term fluctuations may occur due to weather conditions.
• China is nearing a turning point where clean electricity deployment meets all structural demand growth, potentially leading to the first decline in fossil generation since 2015. In 2024, clean electricity additions met 81% of China's demand growth. China's solar capacity rose from 393 GWac in 2022 to 887 GWac in 2024.
• India is rapidly expanding its clean capacity to decouple demand growth from fossil fuels. Solar capacity increased by 24 GWac in 2024, and 143 GW of wind and solar capacity is currently under construction with expected completion by 2028. The Indian government has set a clean power capacity target of 500 GW by 2030.
• The global decline of fossil generation depends heavily on trends in China and India. Between 2020 and 2024, China accounted for 95% of the net global increase in fossil generation. If China and India transition to clean growth, the share of global electricity demand in economies with falling fossil generation would rise to 79%.

APA

Ember (2025). The Big Picture. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-big-picture-2/

Chicago

Ember. The Big Picture. 2025. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-big-picture-2/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=The Big Picture |date=8 April 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-big-picture-2/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2025big, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{The Big Picture}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-big-picture-2/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }