Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)

This special report provides a scenario analysis (V, U, and L scenarios) of the impact of COVID-19 on Africa through 2030, focusing on economic indicators, extreme poverty, and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets.

• COVID-19 is projected to significantly increase extreme poverty in Africa, widening the gap toward the 2030 SDG goal of elimination. In 2020 alone, an additional 14 million Africans are expected to live below the US$1.90 extreme poverty threshold compared to pre-pandemic trajectories. By 2030, the number of people in extreme income poverty is projected to reach between 607 million (V scenario), 621 million (U scenario), and 640 million (L scenario), representing 35.7% to 37.6% of the total population.
• The economic impact includes an expected increase in debt, with a forecast rise of about 5 percentage points of GDP in 2020 compared to the Reference scenario, potentially reaching a nine percentage point increase by 2022 in the worst-case L scenario. While net aid receipts are likely to decrease in 2020 or 2021 due to contractions in donor economies, Africa's overall dependence on aid as a contribution to GDP and government revenues is expected to increase for several years.
• The pandemic is expected to further constrain progress toward several SDG targets by 2030. Undernourished populations are now set to increase, reaching between 233 million and 247 million people depending on the scenario. Infant mortality is projected to be three times higher than the UN target by 2030. Additionally, the upper secondary education graduation rate is expected to be reduced by two percentage points, and access to improved water infrastructure is likely to reduce by at least a percentage point.
• Certain countries are identified as being most negatively affected across all three scenarios: Nigeria, the DR Congo, Ethiopia, Niger, and Tanzania. Niger is highlighted as particularly vulnerable due to having the continent's most youthful population (median age below 16 years) and low human development indicators.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=05-comparative

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=05-comparative.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020) |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=05-comparative |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=05-comparative}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }