Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)

The report forecasts that COVID-19 will significantly hinder Africa's progress toward the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, particularly in eliminating extreme poverty. Depending on the recovery scenario (V, U, or L), the number of Africans living in extreme poverty by 2030 is projected to increase to between 607 million and 640 million. The analysis highlights a severe short-term shock in 2020, with an additional 14 million people falling below the US$1.90 poverty threshold. Economic consequences include an expected increase in debt by 5 to 9 percentage points of GDP and a heightened dependence on international aid due to domestic economic contraction. The most negatively affected countries are identified as Nigeria, the DR Congo, Ethiopia, Niger, and Tanzania. Other SDG targets, including undernutrition, infant mortality, and education completion rates, are also expected to deteriorate or miss targets further.

• COVID-19 is projected to increase the number of Africans living in extreme poverty (below US$1.90 per person per day) by 2030. While the Reference scenario estimated 570 million people in extreme poverty, the V, U, and L scenarios project this to rise to 607 million, 621 million, and 640 million respectively.
• The immediate impact in 2020 was severe, with 14 million additional Africans falling below the extreme poverty threshold. By 2021, this number is expected to rise to 25 million (V scenario), 29 million (U scenario), or 30 million (L scenario) compared to pre-pandemic forecasts.
• Public debt is forecast to rise by approximately 5 percentage points of GDP in 2020 relative to the Reference scenario, potentially increasing by 9 percentage points of GDP by 2022 under the worst-case L scenario.
• The pandemic is expected to increase Africa's dependence on aid because of the large contraction of its economies, even though net aid receipts may decrease in 2020 or 2021 as donor economies contract.
• The report identifies Nigeria, the DR Congo, Ethiopia, Niger, and Tanzania as the countries most negatively affected across all three scenarios. Niger is specifically noted for its youthful population and low human development indicators, which are likely to deteriorate further.
• Progress toward several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will be further constrained. Undernourished populations are set to increase (projected at 233 million to 247 million by 2030), infant mortality is expected to be three times the UN target by 2030, and access to improved water infrastructure is likely to decrease by at least a percentage point.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=05-comparative

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=05-comparative.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020) |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=05-comparative |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=05-comparative}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }