Consensus on Carbon Dioxide Removal

The report summarizes a survey of 699 CDR researchers, finding that while experts predict multi-gigaton-scale removal by 2050, they identify market costs and policy gaps as primary barriers. Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and forest-based methods are expected to provide the largest shares of removal by 2075, with forest-based removal being the most cost-effective. Despite predicting a need for over 12 Gt of CDR to reach net-zero by 2075, respondents project actual removal levels to be significantly lower, suggesting a gap between necessity and expected implementation.

• Experts identify market costs and a lack of government policy-driven demand as the most significant challenges inhibiting the widespread adoption of carbon dioxide removal (CDR).
• Researchers project that CDR will reach multi-gigaton scales by 2050, with median estimates of 2.3 Gt in 2050, 5 Gt in 2075, and 10 Gt in 2100.
• By 2075, BECCS is expected to be the largest CDR contributor (over 20%), followed by forest-based CDR and Direct Air Capture (DAC) at 15-20%.
• Forest-based CDR is projected as the cheapest option for 2075 with a mean cost of $49/tonne, while DAC is the most expensive technological approach at a mean cost of $163/tonne.
• There is a significant discrepancy between the amount of CDR experts believe is necessary for net-zero by 2075 (over 85% believe more than 12 Gt is needed) and the amounts they actually predict will be achieved.
• Nearly half of the surveyed experts believe that the absence of viable widespread CDR by 2075 would lead to significantly greater emissions-mitigation efforts.

APA

Sylvan, P. H. D. (2024). Consensus on Carbon Dioxide Removal. Institute for Policy Integrity. https://policyintegrity.org/publications/detail/consensus-on-carbon-dioxide-removal

Chicago

Sylvan, Peter Howard, Derek. Consensus on Carbon Dioxide Removal. Institute for Policy Integrity, 2024. https://policyintegrity.org/publications/detail/consensus-on-carbon-dioxide-removal.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sylvan |first1=Peter Howard, Derek |title=Consensus on Carbon Dioxide Removal |publisher=Institute for Policy Integrity |date=31 July 2024 |url=https://policyintegrity.org/publications/detail/consensus-on-carbon-dioxide-removal |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sylvan2024consensus, author = {Sylvan, Peter Howard, Derek}, title = {{Consensus on Carbon Dioxide Removal}}, institution = {Institute for Policy Integrity}, year = {2024}, month = jul, url = {https://policyintegrity.org/publications/detail/consensus-on-carbon-dioxide-removal}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }