The Big Picture

The report identifies 2023 as the likely peak for global power sector emissions, forecasting a decline in 2024 driven by record solar and wind additions. While electricity demand is expected to rise due to electrification, data centres, and air conditioning, the growth of clean energy is projected to outpace this demand. The document highlights that tripling renewable capacity by 2030 could halve power sector emissions. It also provides case studies of China, Brazil, and the Netherlands to demonstrate how high-level ambition, incentive mechanisms, and the removal of technical barriers can accelerate the transition regardless of geographic or economic starting points.

• The year 2023 is identified as the likely peak for global power sector emissions, with a forecast that emissions will fall in 2024. Although emissions rose by 1% in 2023, this was primarily due to droughts reducing hydropower generation; without this shortfall, emissions would have fallen by 0.4%.
• Tripling global renewable electricity capacity by 2030 has the potential to reduce power sector emissions by approximately 45% by that year. This would involve adding 14,000 TWh of annual generation compared to 2022 levels, which would cut fossil power generation by 6,570 TWh.
• Solar energy is the primary driver of the clean energy revolution, with 2023 capacity additions 76% higher than in 2022, reaching 444 GW. Global solar PV manufacturing capacity is expected to reach 1,100 GW by the end of 2024, which is sufficient to meet the IEA Net Zero Emissions scenario.
• Global electricity demand is entering a period of faster growth, with a forecast increase of 3.3% (+968 TWh) in 2024. Key drivers include the electrification of transport and heating, the expansion of data centres, and increased use of air conditioning.
• China is a global leader in the transition, with wind and solar shares growing from 3.9% in 2015 to 15.6% in 2023. Its success is attributed to strategic prioritisation of the "new three" industries (solar power, EVs, and batteries), targeted subsidies, and massive expansion of long-distance transmission grids.
• Brazil and the Netherlands demonstrate that diverse pathways can achieve rapid results. Brazil's wind and solar generation reached 21% in 2023, aided by the PROINFA program and BNDES financial support. The Netherlands reduced fossil generation from 84% in 2015 to 49% in 2023, driven by a 2017 commitment to phase out coal by 2030 and the SDE incentive schemes.

APA

Ember (2024). The Big Picture. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-big-picture/

Chicago

Ember. The Big Picture. 2024. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-big-picture/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=The Big Picture |date=8 May 2024 |url=https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-big-picture/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2024big, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{The Big Picture}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2024}, month = may, url = {https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-big-picture/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }