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The Council on Strategic Risks describes a workshop in California that explored how extreme weather events, such as wildfires and droughts, can be leveraged by opportunistic actors to spread mis- and disinformation. The report identifies key uncertainties regarding generative AI, institutional capacity, and public trust, and presents three divergent future scenarios for the state: a 'muddling through' crisis, a geopolitical collapse triggered by conflict in the Pacific, and a positive social transformation in water management. It concludes that information manipulation is a persistent risk to disaster response and national security, necessitating cross-sector partnerships for resilience.

The report forecasts that Africa's energy demand will rise significantly due to population growth and economic expansion, with the 'Combined scenario' projecting demand 26% above the 'Current Path' by 2050. While production is expected to increase—particularly through renewables—demand will still outpace supply, increasing reliance on energy imports. Despite a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, Africa's share of global CO2-equivalent emissions from fossil fuels is projected to rise to 10.4% by 2050 in the Combined scenario.

The report explores how a differentiated global carbon tax—where rates are based on a country's income classification—could reduce fossil fuel emissions and foster economic growth in Africa. Under the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, the African economy is projected to be 58% larger by 2050 than the 'Current Path', with significant reductions in extreme poverty and near-total electricity access, despite a larger economy. The document also highlights Africa's potential as a carbon sink through reforestation and land management to attract investment and carbon credits.

The document analyzes a hypothetical 'Demographics and Health scenario' for Africa, projecting that aggressive improvements in health and WaSH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene) infrastructure would lead to a healthier, wealthier population by 2043. Key projections include a significant increase in safely managed sanitation and water access, a reduction in infant mortality and fertility rates, and a decrease in the disease burden. Economically, the scenario suggests that these health improvements would boost GDP per capita, particularly in low-income countries, and reduce the number of extremely poor Africans by 41 million compared to the current path, despite a smaller overall population.

The 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, which combines differentiated carbon taxes and energy efficiency policies, is projected to significantly reduce fossil fuel emissions while accelerating economic growth and reducing extreme poverty in Africa by 2050 and 2063.

The document outlines the challenges and opportunities facing Africa's development, emphasizing the need to balance energy access with a low-carbon transition and the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). It presents the 'Combined scenario' as a pathway to achieve the African Union's Agenda 2063 goals by 2043 through strategic investment and policy coherence.

The report argues that Africa's health and WaSH sectors require a shift from donor dependency to domestic investment and institutional reform. It emphasizes the role of the Africa CDC in health sovereignty and the goal of producing 60% of vaccines locally by 2040. The document advocates for tailored strategies based on a typology of state capacities and the adoption of decentralized, solar-powered WaSH solutions to improve outcomes across the continent.

The document outlines a projected economic transition for Africa by 2043, moving from raw commodity exports to a more balanced profile of manufactured goods and services. It emphasizes the role of urbanisation as a catalyst for growth, provided it is supported by resilient infrastructure. The 'Combined scenario' predicts a strategic rebalancing where manufacturing gains GDP share and agriculture becomes more commercialised and productive, despite a declining share of total GDP. Key enablers include ICT, renewable energy investment, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

The document concludes that Africa is positioned for a manufacturing surge if it can overcome structural bottlenecks through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), infrastructure investment, and smart industrial policy. It contrasts a 'Current Path' with a 'Manufacturing scenario' where, by 2043, the continent achieves higher GDP and employment by transitioning from a raw material exporter to a producer of value-added goods like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and electric vehicles.

The research paper projects that a 'Combined scenario'—integrating policy coherence, governance, and strategic investment—would significantly increase Africa's GDP to US$8.9 trillion by 2043 and reduce extreme poverty to 242 million people. It highlights that while low-income countries like the DR Congo and Mozambique would see the fastest growth, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and governance reforms are the most effective drivers of per capita income and poverty reduction across the continent.

The document concludes that African development is a non-linear, complex process requiring a shift from 'grand schemes' to the 'mundane functions' of governance and technical implementation. It emphasizes that success depends on national ownership, a social contract between citizens and the state, and consistent investment in knowledge creation and innovation to move up the productivity curve. The author outlines eight requirements for transformation, including strategic prioritization of catalytic interventions like agriculture and digital infrastructure, and the capacity for implementation through capable civil services.

The document analyzes the trajectory of Africa's fossil fuel emissions, noting that while the continent currently contributes less than 5% of global emissions, this share is projected to rise to 12.5% by 2063 under the Current Path and 15% under the Combined scenario. It identifies a small number of countries—most notably Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa—as the primary drivers of the continent's carbon footprint, with Nigeria projected to become the continent's largest emitter by 2050.

The Manufacturing scenario projects a structural economic transformation for Africa by 2043, increasing the manufacturing sector's GDP share to 18.1% and adding US$282.8 billion to the continent's total GDP. This shift is expected to generate 34.6 million additional jobs, primarily unskilled roles in agro-processing and services, while increasing government revenue by US$81.6 billion. The scenario forecasts a reduction in extreme poverty, lifting 19.11 million more people out of poverty by 2043 than the Current Path, and predicts a long-term decrease in income inequality through the expansion of the middle class.

The report quantifies how extreme heat and rainfall accelerate the deterioration of Canadian public infrastructure, increasing annual costs by $15.1B on average between 2025 and 2100 if no adaptation occurs. It compares 'reactive' and 'proactive' adaptation strategies, finding that proactive upgrades—implemented at the earliest feasible intervention—reduce average annual climate-related costs to $6.5B, a 57% reduction compared to the no-adaptation scenario. The analysis highlights that municipalities bear the heaviest financial burden, owning over 73% of the infrastructure value. A separate flood-risk assessment indicates that structural protection measures can significantly reduce future damages, though returns vary by region.

The report advocates for a "twin-track" diversification of India's clean cooking energy to address the affordability, delivery, and price volatility issues associated with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and piped natural gas (PNG). It proposes scaling electric cooking (e-cooking) in urban and peri-urban areas and biogas in rural areas. The analysis suggests that e-cooking could halve LPG demand by 2050 and save over INR 2 trillion in subsidies, while rural biogas adoption depends on reducing high upfront costs and improving local maintenance ecosystems.

The report uses a fictional 2030 scenario to analyze how various global actors would react to a proposed Arctic-based Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) deployment. It concludes that geopolitical instincts and existing rivalries, rather than scientific data, would drive initial responses, with Russia posing the primary security risk. The authors argue that a trusted multilateral scientific assessment and early trust-building are essential to prevent miscalculation and escalation.

The document explores how sunlight reflection methods (SRM), such as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB), interact with global security. While SRM could mitigate climate-driven security risks by lowering temperatures, it may introduce new tensions regarding its use and outcomes. The briefing distinguishes SRM from cloud seeding, noting that while the latter has a history of weaponisation (e.g., Operation Popeye), SAI and MCB are too imprecise for direct weapon use but could still be used for general disruption. It argues that large-scale deployment would be difficult to hide due to detectable infrastructure and atmospheric effects. Two hypothetical scenarios are presented: one involving military tensions in the Arctic over an SAI programme and another involving accusations of drought in South Asia. The authors recommend building trust, transparency, and using scenario gaming to manage these security challenges.

The report finds that US farmers apply 3.5 to 5.8 million metric tons of nitrogen fertilizer in excess of what crops can absorb, contributing to significant greenhouse gas emissions and water pollution. It highlights that nitrogen fertilizer use in 2023 was responsible for approximately 120 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions. The authors argue that voluntary USDA programs like EQIP and CSP are underfunded and that the next Farm Bill should prioritize soil health and agroecology to reduce chemical dependency and climate risks.

The study finds that while solar PV is the backbone of Nigeria's net-zero electricity system, the lowest-cost and most reliable pathways require a technology-neutral approach that includes nuclear power and natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Restricting these firm low-carbon technologies increases total installed capacity by approximately 50% and annual investment requirements by about 7%. Under baseline demand, net-zero timelines require average annual investments of US$7–10 billion, but a high-demand scenario aligned with Nigeria Agenda 2050 would increase average annual investment to US$35.8 billion and nearly triple total system costs.

The report forecasts that COVID-19 will significantly hinder Africa's progress toward the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, particularly in eliminating extreme poverty. Depending on the recovery scenario (V, U, or L), the number of Africans living in extreme poverty by 2030 is projected to increase to between 607 million and 640 million. The analysis highlights a severe short-term shock in 2020, with an additional 14 million people falling below the US$1.90 poverty threshold. Economic consequences include an expected increase in debt by 5 to 9 percentage points of GDP and a heightened dependence on international aid due to domestic economic contraction. The most negatively affected countries are identified as Nigeria, the DR Congo, Ethiopia, Niger, and Tanzania. Other SDG targets, including undernutrition, infant mortality, and education completion rates, are also expected to deteriorate or miss targets further.