Climate Intervention at High Latitudes: A 2030 Security Scenario

The report uses a fictional 2030 scenario to analyze how various global actors would react to a proposed Arctic-based Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) deployment. It concludes that geopolitical instincts and existing rivalries, rather than scientific data, would drive initial responses, with Russia posing the primary security risk. The authors argue that a trusted multilateral scientific assessment and early trust-building are essential to prevent miscalculation and escalation.

• Initial reactions to an Arctic SAI proposal are likely to be driven by geopolitical instincts and strategic interests rather than scientific arguments, with states interpreting the deployment through the lens of regional influence and existing rivalries.
• Russia is identified as the primary security risk in an Arctic SAI scenario due to its military presence and suspicion of Western interventions; it might view the effort as a strategic threat and respond with further militarization, sabotage, or disinformation campaigns.
• A credible, multilateral scientific assessment is necessary to reduce security anxieties and misperceptions by providing a shared evidence baseline for impacts in both Arctic and non-Arctic regions.
• Without early trust-building and established diplomatic channels, there is a high risk of misinterpretation and escalation, as states are likely to become more defensive once a deployment proposal is formally presented.
• The African Union and Mexico would likely express concerns regarding equity, representation of developing countries in research, and the potential for SAI to disrupt precipitation patterns and water availability in their regions.
• China might adopt a public stance of opposition while privately benefiting as a 'free rider,' potentially using the proposal to position itself as a champion for the developing world against 'Western climate imperialism.'

APA

Sikorsky, E., Greensfelder, J., & Lyons, H. (2026). Climate Intervention at High Latitudes: A 2030 Security Scenario. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/02/05/climate-intervention-at-high-latitudes-a-2030-security-scenario/

Chicago

Sikorsky, Erin, Julia Greensfelder, and Hannah Lyons. Climate Intervention at High Latitudes: A 2030 Security Scenario. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2026. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/02/05/climate-intervention-at-high-latitudes-a-2030-security-scenario/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sikorsky |first1=Erin |last2=Greensfelder |first2=Julia |last3=Lyons |first3=Hannah |title=Climate Intervention at High Latitudes: A 2030 Security Scenario |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=5 February 2026 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/02/05/climate-intervention-at-high-latitudes-a-2030-security-scenario/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sikorsky2026climate, author = {Sikorsky, Erin and Greensfelder, Julia and Lyons, Hannah}, title = {{Climate Intervention at High Latitudes: A 2030 Security Scenario}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/02/05/climate-intervention-at-high-latitudes-a-2030-security-scenario/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }