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The report highlights the systemic risks of fossil fuel dependency, noting that three-quarters of the global population live in importing countries that spent $1.7 trillion on imports in 2024. It argues that the current crisis in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, serves as a catalyst for Asia to transition to electric technologies. The document asserts that scaling EVs, solar, wind, and heat pumps could reduce fossil fuel import bills by approximately 70%, with EVs already displacing 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in 2025.

The report uses a fictional 2030 scenario to analyze how various global actors would react to a proposed Arctic-based Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) deployment. It concludes that geopolitical instincts and existing rivalries, rather than scientific data, would drive initial responses, with Russia posing the primary security risk. The authors argue that a trusted multilateral scientific assessment and early trust-building are essential to prevent miscalculation and escalation.

The policy brief examines the risk of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon, highlighting the potential for regional escalation involving Iran and its allies, and the subsequent impact on the EU. It criticizes the EU's current approach to Lebanon, which it claims prioritizes migration control over structural stability, and calls for a shift toward comprehensive economic support, targeted sanctions against corrupt elites, and active diplomacy to avoid a humanitarian and energy catastrophe.

The briefing highlights the unprecedented inclusion of peace on the COP28 agenda, the role of climate finance as a security tool and geopolitical flashpoint, the environmental and security impacts of the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, and the security implications of the first Global Stocktake's findings on temperature rise.

The report argues that climate change acts as a risk multiplier in the India-China rivalry, increasing the likelihood of conflict through material threats and perceptual risks. Key vulnerabilities include increased flooding in the Brahmaputra River Basin, which may be misconstrued as Chinese water manipulation, and warming in the western border region that could facilitate more frequent military patrols and clashes. The study also highlights the security implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) dam projects on the Indus and Brahmaputra rivers. To mitigate these risks, the authors recommend establishing granular data-sharing agreements, joint early warning systems for natural disasters, and long-term river basin treaties involving all riparian states.

The document argues that while climate change is unlikely to be the proximate cause of war between India and Pakistan, it acts as a risk multiplier by increasing the volatility of river flows in the Indus River Basin (IRB). This volatility heightens mutual distrust regarding dam operations and water manipulation, placing unprecedented stress on the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). The author suggests that the IWT's framework of partitioning water is inadequate for modern climate challenges and recommends a shift toward joint sustainable management to prevent natural calamities from triggering armed conflict in a nuclear-armed region.

The report argues that climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to US national security by intensifying physical impacts and mounting geopolitical tensions over the energy transition. It identifies a likely increase in cross-border conflicts over water and migration, strategic competition in the Arctic, and the risk of unilateral solar geoengineering. The document highlights 11 highly vulnerable countries and two regions (Central Africa and Pacific island states) where climate-induced instability may necessitate increased US diplomatic, humanitarian, and military resources. It also notes that current global policies are insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals, leading to competition over critical minerals and technologies.