Climate Change and International Responses

The report argues that climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to US national security by intensifying physical impacts and mounting geopolitical tensions over the energy transition. It identifies a likely increase in cross-border conflicts over water and migration, strategic competition in the Arctic, and the risk of unilateral solar geoengineering. The document highlights 11 highly vulnerable countries and two regions (Central Africa and Pacific island states) where climate-induced instability may necessitate increased US diplomatic, humanitarian, and military resources. It also notes that current global policies are insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals, leading to competition over critical minerals and technologies.

• Geopolitical tensions are expected to rise as nations dispute the responsibility and speed of greenhouse gas emission reductions to meet Paris Agreement goals, with China and India playing critical roles in the temperature trajectory.
• Current global policies and technology trends are insufficient to meet the 1.5°C Paris goal; global energy demand is projected to increase by over 18% by 2040, and fossil fuel use will continue to grow despite the rise of solar and wind power.
• Competition is intensifying to control the minerals and technologies essential for the clean energy transition, with China currently dominating the processing capacity for rare earths, polysilicon, cobalt, lithium, manganese, and graphite.
• Physical climate effects are amplifying strategic competition in the Arctic over natural resources and shipping routes, increasing the risk of military miscalculation by 2040.
• There is a growing risk of conflict over transboundary water resources and increased cross-border migration, particularly after 2030, as weather variability triggers water insecurity and displacement.
• A risk exists that a country may unilaterally deploy large-scale solar geoengineering, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, if they perceive other warming limits have failed, potentially causing international blowback.
• The IC identifies 11 countries—Afghanistan, Burma, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia, and Iraq—as highly vulnerable to climate effects and lacking adaptive capacity, increasing the risk of instability.
• Central Africa and small island states in the Pacific are identified as regional arcs of vulnerability where high exposure and low adaptive capacity may require US humanitarian aid or dispute settlement.

APA

The Council on Strategic Risks (n.d.). Climate Change and International Responses. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/25.-NIE_Climate_Change_and_National_Security.pdf

Chicago

The Council on Strategic Risks. Climate Change and International Responses. n.d. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/25.-NIE_Climate_Change_and_National_Security.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=The Council on Strategic Risks |title=Climate Change and International Responses |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/25.-NIE_Climate_Change_and_National_Security.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{thecouncilonstrategicrisksndclimate, author = {{The Council on Strategic Risks}}, title = {{Climate Change and International Responses}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/25.-NIE_Climate_Change_and_National_Security.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }