No World Order: Lebanon on the Brink

The policy brief examines the risk of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon, highlighting the potential for regional escalation involving Iran and its allies, and the subsequent impact on the EU. It criticizes the EU's current approach to Lebanon, which it claims prioritizes migration control over structural stability, and calls for a shift toward comprehensive economic support, targeted sanctions against corrupt elites, and active diplomacy to avoid a humanitarian and energy catastrophe.

• An escalation of conflict between Israel and Lebanon could draw in the EU via Cyprus, as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened the island with retaliation on June 19, 2024, if it allowed Israel to use its bases and airports for attacks.
• A full-scale war would likely cause a massive refugee influx into the EU, mirroring the Syrian civil war, as Lebanon already hosts the world's highest number of refugees per capita, including approximately 475,000 UN-registered Palestinians.
• Conflict could severely disrupt EU energy security by compromising the Red Sea route for oil and natural gas, a vulnerability already evidenced by QatarEnergy and the Kuwait Oil Tanker Company suspending or altering shipments in January 2024 due to Houthi attacks.
• The EU's current strategy in Lebanon is criticized for focusing on migration prevention rather than stability; a recent deal provides one billion euros over three years to support the economy and border management in exchange for stopping irregular migration.
• Lebanon is facing a state of near-collapse characterized by a presidential vacuum since 2022, rampant corruption (ranking 149 out of 180 in the 2023 Corruption Perception Index), and an economic crisis where the Lebanese Pound has lost over 90% of its value since 2019.
• The document recommends that the EU move beyond migration-centric deals to invest in Lebanon's future, utilize its 2021 framework for targeted sanctions against elites, and advocate for a ceasefire in Gaza to reduce regional tensions.

APA

Besliu, R. (2024). No World Order: Lebanon on the Brink. Green European Journal. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/no-world-order-lebanon-on-the-brink/

Chicago

Besliu, Raluca. No World Order: Lebanon on the Brink. Green European Journal, 2024. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/no-world-order-lebanon-on-the-brink/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Besliu |first1=Raluca |title=No World Order: Lebanon on the Brink |publisher=Green European Journal |date=17 July 2024 |url=https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/no-world-order-lebanon-on-the-brink/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{besliu2024world, author = {Besliu, Raluca}, title = {{No World Order: Lebanon on the Brink}}, institution = {Green European Journal}, year = {2024}, month = jul, url = {https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/no-world-order-lebanon-on-the-brink/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }